SPECIAL REPORT | PHILIPPINES NUCLEAR MARKET


Table 3: Microgrid opportunities for 5 MWe small reactors and related earnings Island group


Peak


North Luzon Catanduanes Mindanao Sulu


8.85 7.76


11.36 8.55


Min


4.79 3.86 6.12 1.20


Average 5.12


0.08 7.15 6.15


TCog (PhP)


13.800 17.022 16.413 15.320


Total 5 MWe units


Table 4: Microgrid opportunities for 1 MWe small reactors and related earnings Island group


Peak


Batanes Apayao Masbate Mindoro Romblon Palawan Cebu


Mindanao Sultan Kudarat


1.464 1.319 2.206 4.000 2.375 2.225 3.055 4.489 4.239


Min


0.598 0.370 1.180 2.000 0.196 1.113 1.721


2.000 1.550


Total 1 MWe units Average


0.922 0.978 1.385 2.493 1.601 1.640 2.115 2.939 2.974 12


TCog (PhP)


16.416 20.583 14.655 11.373 19.009 15.152 24.669 15.822 13.464


TCog (USD)


0.248 0.306 0.295 0.275 4


Average output assumed


5000 4000 5000 5000


Annual revenue (PhP)


544,011,768 536,793,178 646,992,576 603,910,458


Annual revenue (USD)


$9,775,593 $9,645,879 $11,626,102 $10,851,940


Average revenue per unit: $10,474,879


TCog (USD)


0.295 0.370 0.263 0.204 0.342 0.272 0.443 0.284 0.242 4


Average output assumed


800 800


1000 2000 1000 1000 2000 2000 1000


Annual revenue (PhP)


103,538,364 129,819,205 115,543,174 179,335,771 149,867,744 119,459,945 388,983,946 249,484,450 106,147,022


Annual revenue (USD)


$1,860,528 $2,332,780 $2,076,248 $3,222,566 $2,693,041 $2,146,630 $6,989,828 $4,483,099 $1,907,404


Average revenue per unit: $2,309,344


The Visayas grid is much smaller and, worse, more


disbursed. While the total grid could take an LWR, each island presents too small an individual load and the inter- island underwater ties limit transfers between islands. Ergo, SMRs are a much better fit for this grid. Assuming that an SMR is a nominal 300-ish MWe unit – as are the offerings of the current apparent market leaders NuScale and GE- Hitachi BWRX – other sizes could fit, like Holtec’s 160 MWe unit or a Westinghouse AP600. The preferred connection points on the Visayas grid


reveal opportunities for about 17 units considering 300 MWe class reactors in single or dual unit sites. It’s fair to assume that not all the sites on an island can be populated with SMRs at the same time. Further, some nuclear-specific siting limitations could exclude some or many of these possible connection points. Some may be too close to one of the archipelago’s 24 active volcanos or several active faults, for example. Local electrical supply and demand balances or inter-island connection limitations could preclude others. The third main grid, Mindanao, has the advantage of being largely a single island so inter-island connections are not a constraint as for the Visayas grid. However, its internal grid is weaker and the some regions of the island


have experienced historical political instability. The planned connection points could accommodate nine SMRs, with the same provisos as applied to the Visayas grid.


Large grid projections based on market share This analysis of load demand growth, transmission development plans, and operational factors gives some upper bounds on nuclear penetration in meeting expected demand. However, the Philippines is unlikely to be able go the way of a nation like France that strove to approach a 100% nuclear grid. Better to select two more realistic penetration goals for the further analysis of the Philippines - 20% and 40% nuclear market shares per the main grid. Assuming that the 630 MWe Bataan Nuclear Plant Plant (BNPP) restart is a done-deal and it that reduces the gap for Luzon only it will not be credited against the 20% and 40% additional nuclear capacity.


Table 5: Potential Philippines nuclear power market to 2040 Grids


Luzon Visayas


Mindanao Micro-Grids


*Above and beyond the addition of the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant Range to 2040


2 to 4 large LWRs* 4 to 7 SMRs 3 to 6 SMRs


4 of the 5 MWe class 12 of the 1 MWe class


Micro-grids When future civilian markets for micro-reactors are discussed, many first think of the Philippines archipelago as a natural fit. While most of the population, industry, and generation are connected to one of the three main grids, the geography of the country has precluded the main grids from economically serving many individual islands and some remote areas on larger islands. The government attempts to reach these groups with the “Missionary Electrification” programme run by NPC. Essentially, NPC provides and operates diesel-electric plants that serve local coops and distribution companies that directly serve the customers. The local entities receive the power as discos and maintain the distribution lines and provide meter reading and billing services. There are 136 or more of these micro-grids as of 2022 although the number is expected to fall as NGCP extends


28 | October 2023 | www.neimagazine.com


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