DEMISE OF LONDON BLACK CABS CAN IT BE TURNED AROUND?
Article by Derek Myers (MCIPR)
derekmmyers@gmail.com
You may have noticed that the number of London taxis is declining rapidly. Ten years ago there were 22,500 taxis; today there are 14,500. Driver numbers over the same period have fallen from 25,000 to 17,000. Although, with a three-year driver licensing cycle, in reality, numbers are probably closer to the 14,500 vehicle number.
The general consensus seems to be that the extremely difficult Knowledge of London (typically taking between three to four years) is the main barrier to entry and reason behind the decrease. However, while the Knowledge produces taxi drivers with a reputation for being the best in the world, it never produced large numbers. The main reasons lie at the other end of a driver’s career, which is where the real changes have taken place.
Transport for London (TfL) data indicates that around 40% of drivers are over 60 and a further 20-25% are 55 plus. There has always been a large number of fairly old taxi drivers and, as long as their health was up to standard, very few retired early. This is why, especially on a weekend, it wasn’t uncommon to hail a cab with an 85-year- old driver who just worked for a few hours a week. In fact the service was made up of a percentage of full time younger drivers supplemented, at the busiest times, by these older guys and girls whose hours decreased as the years passed.
Since 2010, the age limit for a London taxi has been 15 years and this supplementary fleet included many owner drivers with freehold cabs that were 10 to 12 years old. With relatively low running costs they continued to maintain the vehicle’s conditions of fitness in order to pass two MOTs a year and an annual licensing inspection. This enabled them to plan their slow down and continue part-time working for the duration of the 15-year licence period.
In 2019, however, the rules were changed and, for Euro 5 taxis, the age limit started reducing to its current level of 12 years as TfL mandated that all new taxis should be, not fully electrically powered but, zero emission capable. LEVC produces the only taxi that meets the current licensing requirements and which has a base
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purchase price of around £70,000. Consequently the alternatives of buying, leasing or renting one has become too expensive for somebody who’s reducing their hours and, with falling vehicle numbers, there’s an ever decreasing number of viable second hand alternatives. So, with few options available, many older drivers are being forced into retirement.
The reason behind the reduced life cycle was to improve emissions in London. However, there’s never been a requirement to scrap these vehicles and they can still be licensed as a taxi in many other parts of the UK which is where many of them continue working.
Over the last five years, while the number of the electric/ petrol engined vehicles has increased by 5,200 and now make up 60% of the current fleet, taxi driver numbers have fallen by a very similar number - and that’s not a coincidence. But that’s only one part of the story.
While most of London operates a 20 mph speed limit, the ‘rat runs’ that London taxi drivers were famed for are fewer and fewer and they now operate in a city with single lanes on most major roads; with long term build- ing works which minimise road widths; as well as road works and constant changes to one way systems. Added to this are an increasing and ever changing number of no entry streets and limited access roads which, altogether, culminates in one continuous traffic jam for much of the time.
Over the years, the taxi industry’s minicab opposition went from operating due to a loophole within the law to a much lower but nevertheless regulated sector licensed by TfL, which also licenses London’s taxis - and numbers grew and grew! Since 2014 private hire vehicles have gone from 60,000 to 95,000 and driver numbers from 78,000 to 108,000. And that’s not taking into account a current loophole that allows some licences from outer London areas to operate within the capital. So, for now, while London may have a diminishing taxi trade, the overall supply appears to be constantly increasing.
However, self driving taxis are now operating in three American cities; San Francisco, Los Angeles and Phoenix, with Austin starting soon. Projects are underway in Milton Keynes and announcements of near future plans have been coming from cities near and far. So, how long before the Knowledge and every aspect of driver licensing vanishes altogether?
DECEMBER 2024 PHTM
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