COMMENT


Now and Then... Brexit: Deal or no deal?


A


s the clock ticks down on Brexit, UK policymakers


are seemingly no closer to providing the essential reassurance businesses require to


plot their next moves. With the picture in Whitehall changing on


a daily, if not hourly, basis, the government and country has moved into historically uncharted waters. Despite being given the political mandate to renegotiate last month’s defeated withdrawal deal in the form of two successful tabled amendments in the House of Commons (one seeking ‘alternatives’ to the divisive Irish backstop arrangement and the other rejecting leaving the EU without an agreed deal), the government remains deadlocked in cross-party fisticuffs as it attempts to woo the EU into making changes. Commission President Jean-Claude


Juncker says no renegotiation will occur. At the time of writing (14 February) MPs were due to debate Brexit and its amendments, but Prime Minister Theresa May has already confirmed she will update the House on 26 February, before further votes are expected to take place. If a deal is not agreed, another renegotiation, vote of no confidence, referendum or even election are potential options on the table. Irrespective of the posturing and hyperbole, the fact remains that there is a finite amount of time until Britain leaves the EU on 29 March – deal or no deal. The World Travel & Tourism Council


earlier this month warned that more than 700,000 travel and tourism sector jobs could be put at risk in the event of a hard Brexit. Pro-Brexiteers may dismiss the suggestion based on Britain’s ability to strike solid deals on World Trade Organisation rules. However, rhetoric often masks the proverbial clarity that is required. European aviation has been given assurances that existing air services between the UK and EU27 will continue uninterrupted and any no-deal contingency measures will now no longer result in a capacity freeze on new EU27-UK routes for UK airlines. As far as duty free is concerned, the


industry has received a clear and strong response from the EU side on UK-bound


54 TRBUSINESS


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‘Campaign focus swings to member states’ dominated the February 1999 front page.


travellers’ abilities to purchase tax and duty free under third country status in a ‘no-deal’ scenario. The sticking point remains the UK’s ability to take a reciprocal stance, which based on conversations with sources close to the matter, remains a ‘legislative challenge’. Of course, if a deal is reached then the


expected transition period means a return to duty free sales is more likely at the end of 2020 as the UK would effectively be tied to EU laws. Nonetheless, retailers are understood to be well mobilised, despite the stutteringly opaque view at national level. This time 20 years ago, the industry lobby’s campaign to save intra-EU duty free pivoted towards convincing national ministers and EU heads of state to prolong trade after an EU Commission report labelled as ‘insignificant’ the effects of intra-EU duty free abolition on employment, as a means of refusing any extension to it beyond 30 June. Then, as now, the fight to amplify DF&TR’s crucial economic and social contribution continues. Decisions – as disappointing as they ultimately were – at least provided the basis for further action in those crucial days in 1999. For now, Brexit’s circus continues as duty free and other sectors contemplate the ongoing uncertainty. «


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FEBRUARY 2019


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