As was the case with the previous period of globalization at the end of the 19th century, the elation about ‘winning’ the Cold War started to fade and resistance to the forces globalization started to build, above all due to the the post-World War II ‘social contract’. Unsurprisingly the swing to capital which it was argued would foster innovation in these sectors, but just as the similarity with the early 20th century stopped there, as the popular World Wars remained very much alive, even if it now appears to be fading.
were already deeply embedded in the world economy, in terms of innovation, as well as the mobility of labour and capital. Unfortunately the already rising tide of inequality, which the political classes were largely unwilling to address, or at best pay lip service to, due to a fear of upsetting the vested interests of capital, which had an ever increasing grip as the primary source of party political funding. In turn, this served to foment the sort of populism for which Trump is the standard bearer, above all given an understandable view that the established ‘popular’ political parties seem instead only appear interested in preserving their political careers.
There is of course considerable irony in the fact that the purveyors of populism, whether in the USA, UK or continental Europe could by and slowdown, and far beyond the borders of mother Russia.
But the fact remains that the USA and China are now in a trade war. On one level Trump’s trade crusades are very much valid, trade agreements are in general a result of the way that the world economy functions at the time of negotiation. They de facto require either a such agreements need to be adapted to the changing expenditure of political capital that are required to reach such agreements militate against such clauses, but that does not obviate the need for them. The shining examples for how the ensuing stasis, if reforms are not enacted, can paralyse or hobble economies is with no shadow of a doubt the Eurozone and the EU.
The biggest concern is that with the trade war increasingly focused on technology, security and intellectual property rights, along with the threats to an already beleaguered auto sector, the world economy Indeed such a slowdown may well expose the monetary policies that have been deployed since the GFC as having been little more than a salve, to cover such a situation, be testament to one of the oldest tenets that when all economic solutions have failed, there is always a military alternative. But that is not the central scenario, indeed there is still very good reason to believe that it is in both China’s and the USA’s interest to return to the negotiating table and fashion an alternative arrangement. The only option not on parameters.
Marc Ostwald
9 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | May/June 2019
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32
