GROWING NATIONAL DEBT Another bearish fundamental is the growing national debt in conjunction with concerns that the government may have used its  too early.


Most of the fundamentals are currently bearish and from time to time they can have a serious, but as we have seen over the past 10 years, only  


Chart 2: S&P 500 Futures - Monthly


MOST OF THE FUNDAMENTALS ARE CURRENTLY BEARISH AND FROM TIME TO TIME THEY CAN HAVE A SERIOUS, BUT AS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST 10 YEARS, ONLY A TEMPORARY NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE STOCK INDEX FUTURES.


At the April 10 policy meeting of the Governing Council of the ECB, it was decided that the interest  interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing  remain at their current levels at least through the end of 2019.


Source: Chart from QST


BULLISH INTEREST RATE INFLUENCE DOMINATES ALL OTHERS Not all the fundamentals are bearish, however. There is one fundamental that quietly sits there, constantly and often without much   March 2009 and it remains with us today. This fundamental ultimately     seemingly insurmountable U.S.-China trade dispute.


This fundamental is the still very accommodative Federal Reserve, in   2015.


Also, from an overseas perspective there are still many countries that have negative interest rates, including several countries in Europe and in Japan.


 stood pat on its main policies, maintaining its target for 10 year Japanese government bond yields at near zero and its short term deposit rate at minus 0.1%.   at least the spring of 2020.


Even though there are plenty of reasons for a bear  view remains that the current variety of bearish fundamentals, either singularly or in summation including the U.S.-China trade dispute, will not be powerful enough to overpower the dominant bullish  globally.


I believe the harder the decline is now due to trade issues, the faster and sharper the advance will be  


Alan Bush


 


17 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | May/June 2019


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