BEAR MARKET AHEAD FOR


U.S. STOCK INDEX FUTURES? It is true that most of the fundamentals are currently bearish for stock index futures. Therefore, how can this bull market continue?


GLOBAL TRADE TENSIONS Probably the most bearish of the fundamentals now is the global trade situation. The United States - China trade dispute, which has recently   again if either side suspects the other is not holding up its end.


Also, there are simmering trade issues between the U.S. and the European Union. The E.U. says it is ready to discuss trade with the U.S.,   The E.U. says agriculture won’t be up for discussion, while the U.S. insists it must be part of negotiations.


WORLD ECONOMIC GROWTH  in 2019 to 3.3% from estimates of 3.5% in January and 3.7% in October,  weighing on nearly all countries around the world. This is the third time 


 Chart 1: Annual GDP (YoY) Forecast Cut from 3.5% forecast in January


6% 5 4 3 2 1 0


-1 2000 2004 2008 Source: International Monetary Fund - Bloomberg 2012 2016 2020


 gross domestic product growth in the euro zone to 1.1% from a previous estimate of 1.7%. The ECB now sees 2020 growth at 1.6% versus a previous  unchanged at 1.5%. In addition, the ECB cut its  2020 was cut to 1.5% from 1.7% and 2021 was cut to 


 reserve ratio requirements and lowered taxes in an attempt to boost a slowing economy.


EARNINGS GROWTH SLOWDOWN There are fears that the years long expansion in U.S.  than investors expected, which some analysts believe is a warning sign for the decade long bull  most visible companies in the U.S. have warned growth is slowing in one segment or another of their businesses.


EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK SLASHED ITS FORECAST FOR 2019 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH IN THE EURO ZONE TO 1.1% FROM A PREVIOUS ESTIMATE OF 1.7%.


16 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | May/June 2019


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