search.noResults

search.searching

dataCollection.invalidEmail
note.createNoteMessage

search.noResults

search.searching

orderForm.title

orderForm.productCode
orderForm.description
orderForm.quantity
orderForm.itemPrice
orderForm.price
orderForm.totalPrice
orderForm.deliveryDetails.billingAddress
orderForm.deliveryDetails.deliveryAddress
orderForm.noItems
Looking forward what can we expect to happen?. It’s worth remembering that the US has not yet fully evoked these tariffs, they have 180 days to make a final decision, by which time hopefully some agreeable solution will have been found.


But for Trump to win this battle, China must believe its pain will exceed that of the US. Who has the most leverage?, both will feel each other does


The political pain threshold in the US is low, but as China exports nearly 4 times the value of products to the US than it imports, the risk to its economy and growth projections is greater.


China, in response to Trump’s latest directive have vowed to “follow suit to the end, and at any cost, and will firmly attack using countermeasures”.


These countermeasures could include, but maybe not limited to, a clamp-down on U.S.-owned companies operating within China such as Apple, Walmart, GM, Ford, Exxon, a slow depreciation of the yuan, or reducing its holdings of $1.2 trillion worth of U.S. Treasury securities. But exiting their holdings in U.S Treasuries will not be an easy exercise, and giving that they hold almost 20% of the US debt, could mean that if they do decide to sell they may well have to do so at a loss on some recent purchases. Another option is that they could just let their current treasuries come to maturity and not roll or renew them, thus reducing their holdings. Quite probably, if it comes to this stage, some combination of the above will be used.


Ultimately, the consensus is there are no winners in trade wars, just losers. But what will the cost be to the world economy that is growing in unison for the first time in many years?


The stock and currency markets are showing us that the trade does not like this uncertainty, so one can only hope that these two powerful countries can come to their senses sooner than later and find a compromise. Let’s hope that President Xi’s proposal that China will allow market access reform will de-escalate these trade tensions and be the start of some positive discussions and eventually a settlement that benefit all.


Scott Wellcome E: scottwellcome@yahoo.com T: +41792713797


29 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | March/April 2018


Page 1  |  Page 2  |  Page 3  |  Page 4  |  Page 5  |  Page 6  |  Page 7  |  Page 8  |  Page 9  |  Page 10  |  Page 11  |  Page 12  |  Page 13  |  Page 14  |  Page 15  |  Page 16  |  Page 17  |  Page 18  |  Page 19  |  Page 20  |  Page 21  |  Page 22  |  Page 23  |  Page 24  |  Page 25  |  Page 26  |  Page 27  |  Page 28  |  Page 29  |  Page 30  |  Page 31  |  Page 32