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SILVER – UNDERPRICED AND UNDERVALUED


Heading into the second quarter of 2018, we see a shift in leadership away from gold and towards silver, platinum and palladium, due to reduced safe haven anxiety (caused by moderating trade war fears) and a revitalized US dollar.


Some will suggest that global economic sentiment has moderated slightly, but we think that stellar Chinese retail sales readings and a much better than  that global synchronized growth remains in place. We also think this will foster stronger industrial demand for the metals. Silver, platinum and palladium are sitting near the bottom of their ranges of the past ten months, while gold is in the upper quarter, so they could be in a better position to rally.


Certainly gold could continue to derive support from the unrelenting pattern of declining South African  Indian and Chinese physical demand will recover along with the recovery in the global economy. Gold’s primary focus looks to remain on the prospects of further weakness in the US dollar, renewed concerns of a trade battle between the US and China, and the general uncertainty in the equity markets.


However, it now appears that trade tensions are moderating, that US rate hike prospects may support the Dollar, and that equity market volatility might moderate. Therefore, gold’s primary bullish force could dissipate.


Moderating economic/trade uncertainty and evidence of ongoing global growth could not only increase demand expectations for industrial metals like silver, platinum and palladium, it could also result in a divergence between those metals’ price and those for gold. April could see a decline in safe haven/currency-dominated interest in gold and a revival in classic, demand-driven interest in the industrial metals.


While South African gold production remains in a long term declining pattern, the silver market has also seen evidence of declining production recently, with Mexico’s production in January down 13.6%. Mexico is the largest silver producer in the world, and a pattern of declining output could inspire speculative and physical interest.


 39% 21%  17%  5%  5%  13% 


HEADING INTO THE SECOND QUARTER OF 2018, WE SEE A SHIFT IN LEADERSHIP AWAY FROM GOLD AND TOWARDS SILVER, PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM.


22 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | March/April 2018


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