 ourselves in today. Currently China is showing the potential to do what the Soviet Union and Imperial Germany both failed to achieve: to have economic parity with the USA. China’s rise to being a world economic superpower is based on its substantial productive capacity in a protected domestic market. China requires huge amounts of imported raw materials, witnessed by the fact that when China moves in the market, everyone sits up and listens. China is in fact the second largest importer in the   the USA taking second spot. Germany in both cases  how big these trading giants are then the top 3 in the world have a combined footprint of more than  more than ever fundamental to the global economy and countries have become mutually dependent on each other for growth and prosperity. So currently it is like watching parents have a huge argument, with the rest of the world being the children eagerly awaiting a resolution. You can therefore make the analysis that we all have something to worry about with the Chinese/US trade war. So is this trade war already a Thucydides Trap coming to fruition?


It would be naïve to believe that the $34 billion worth  administration is nothing other than protectionist.  prevent what it believes to be unfair trade practices by a trading partner who is deemed to be harming US business interests. The intention is to boost the    without retaliation which could also come from his  is yet to answer with their move, but it could go as  and Europe, in essence encouraging a boycott of US goods. If Chinese President Xi were to up the stakes even further, he could begin to call in Washington’s loans, something that has been hinted at by the recent slowing of US Treasury debt purchases, of which it  could also see Japan, Taiwan, India and Singapore also leaving them in the lurch. In short Trump’s current stance could cause more harm than good to the US’ current world standing as well as this war having  the idea that China already holds the cards for being the world’s leading economic power, but does that encompass all attributes we have come to know of the world’s leading super power?


CHINA IS IN FACT THE SECOND LARGEST IMPORTER IN THE WORLD AFTER THE USA TO THE TUNE OF $1,842 BILLION LAST YEAR AND THE LARGEST EXPORTER AT $2,263 BILLION WITH THE USA TAKING SECOND SPOT.


According to Ian Bremmer a ‘superpower’ is a country that can exert enough military, political, and economic power to persuade nations in every region of the world to take important actions they would not otherwise take. If you look at the internal spending   that lends itself to the US’s perceived status as the ‘world’s policeman’. When you look at America’s  deploy brute force for the ‘greater good’, also playing a part in an ally’s interest when one considers cases such as the Middle East for Israel. It’s the idea they are indispensable. China’s rise has come from the desire to see China become economically prosperous solely    policy of not getting involved in other countries’  where it has kept relations open with the country, but  though pushed by the wider international audience. A mantle that Trump was more than happy to take up. This does not necessarily mean China could not take the accolade of world ‘superpower’ but our expectation of the country at the top would change to leading by example by improving your country from within, rather than involvement in what it sees as 


When looking back to answer the question this started with it could be said that we have already entered into Thucydides Trap with the beginning of the trade war between the US and China. The confusion comes from what is now the determining factor for being the ruling power. Or could it be Thucydides Trap is no longer relevant as these two giants show us leading  could sit uneasily, yet for the moment peacefully next to each other.


Lauren Judd  


15 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | July/August 2018


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