ARE WE HEADING FOR THUCYDIDES TRAP? CHINA VS. USA


When looking at the current world political sphere it is arguable that we have once again come to a point where the current established norm of power is being challenged. Attention is firmly sighted on the tussle between China and the USA.


 economy in the world. An accolade they achieved     world dominance of the West and in particular the USA. Are we heading for a period of turmoil or war?


Thucydides Trap is a term coined by historian Graham Tillett Allison, Jr. The idea comes from Greek historian Thucydides’ perception that war is generally inevitable when a ruling power is challenged by a rising power, thus creating structural stress within the established norm. As he explains: “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.”


 where the balance of power has been threatened by a rising nation. Of these, twelve ended in war, the one of recent note being World War I. Of the four cases which have not ended in war, the most recent  Germany is the leading nation in the European Union  the largest in the Euro zone. It is generally accepted that it leads the European Union and is arguably its  a contemporary ascension of power. Could China 


Prior to World War II power had been ascertained by colonialism and conquest, following the war we saw a sharp change towards economic prowess being the guiding factor. It is under these circumstances that the USA assumed the position that it has today as the leading world power. At the end of WWII the USA had the largest and richest economy in the world. They had placed themselves at the center of the postwar world economy by tying the economic reconstruction  America’s economic aspirations. War debt followed the general pattern of: Germany borrows from America to pay Belgium and France, France and Belgium then used this money to repay Britain and America, with Britain in turn using French and Italian war debt to repay the USA…and so the cycle restarted. Supreme world power had come to them arguably by being the world’s bank.


IT WOULD BE NAÏVE TO BELIEVE THAT THE $34 BILLION WORTH OF TARIFFS IMPOSED ON CHINESE GOODS BY THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IS NOTHING OTHER THAN PROTECTIONIST.


14 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | July/August 2018


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