‘Doubters, doomsters and gloomsters’?
of Ireland’s Quarterly Bulletin published on July 31st, 2019. It predicts that under a no-deal scenario, the Irish economy is expected to grow by just 0.7% as opposed to the previously estimated 4.1%. Furthermore, the report suggests that there would be 34,000 less jobs over the next year and 110,000 fewer jobs over the next 10 years. Given these stark predictions, Brexit, whether it takes place under the Withdrawal Agreement or in a disorderly manner, will significantly impact the Irish economy. Ireland, out of all Member States, is likely to be most impacted by Britain’s fast approaching departure from the Union – a fact acknowledged by our fellow member states and reinforced by their strong solidarity for supporting the Irish position in terms of supporting the backstop.
Noelle O Connell, Executive Director, European Movement Ireland
Brexit and the Irish L&D Sector: Navigating the
Road Ahead. As Heraclitus once said, nothing is permanent except change. After three years of Brexit negotiations and with Britain’s departure from the European Union imminent, it is fair to say that there has been a seismic change in the political landscape across the EU and in the UK. Given the unpredictable nature of Brexit we will remain in a period of political fluctuation as the negotiations unfold. The consequence of all this change of course – is the impact and great changes that Irish business will in turn face.
With October 31st, 2019, just around the corner, the same questions are on all our minds; what form will Brexit take and how will it affect Ireland? Britain’s decision to leave the EU has created a very unpredictable environment where the only known certainty is the uncertainty Brexit has thus far created and continues to create. Given the current fragmented political landscape in Britain and across the EU, the future is very uncertain. We can be sure, however, that Brexit will have serious implications for the Irish economy. In order to mitigate its most profound aspects, it is crucial that businesses across Ireland prioritise preparing for the UK’s imminent departure from the EU. This is where the L&D profession comes in to play. Irish businesses must ensure their employers, employees and individual departments are carrying out any necessary upskilling, reskilling and research in preparation for what is to come this autumn. As the Tánaiste said – no-deal contingency planning needs to escalate across Irish businesses, SMEs and sole traders; and we are seeing mixed messages from across the Channel but what is undeniable is a hardening of the rhetoric.
A no-deal Brexit would have a significant negative impact on the Irish economy as evidenced clearly in the Central Bank
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We can’t expect the impact of Brexit to be evenly spread across all sectors of the Irish economy. Similar to the European Commission, the Irish Government has published reports on how sectors most vulnerable to the effects of Brexit can best prepare. In its July 2019 Contingency Action Plan Update, the Irish Government identified ‘agri-food, indigenous manufacturing and tourism, as well as importing sectors, especially those characterised by just-in-time supply chains’ as being particularly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of a no- deal Brexit. Indeed, the IFA has described Brexit as ‘the most serious threat to Irish farming and our agri-food sector in the history of the State’.
L&D can play a pivotal role in helping such vulnerable sectors meet the challenges posed by Brexit. For example, the Expert Group on Future Skills Needs’ 2018 Report Addressing the Skills Needs Arising from the Potential Trade Implications of Brexit declared that ‘there are clear skills gaps and challenges associated with Brexit that require mitigation’. For example, the Report highlighted the importance of language and international selling training as being crucial for the agri-food and agriculture sector’s sustainability after Brexit, as it looks to expand and diversify trade with non-English speaking markets.
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Irish businesses must ensure their employers, employees and individual departments are carrying out any necessary upskilling, reskilling and research in preparation for what is to come this autumn
Although Brexit and its implications are out of any company’s control, responsibility lies with individual companies to best prepare for any likely disruptions and in this regard L&D has a crucial role to play in helping to best prepare your employees and your organisation. There are many considerations to bear in mind when tasked with ensuring the L&D needs of staff and organisations are met; namely, the learning needs of individuals, the needs of departments/teams/units and lastly how these individual and departmental needs relate to the overall requirements of the organisation as a whole. Through clearly developing and offering a suite of responsive interventions, companies can reassure employees that it is working towards ensuring as smooth a transition as possible.
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