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testing might pick up 33% to 63% of all infected passengers – although this would still leave two in five or more undetected. Virgin Atlantic chief


executive Shai Weiss claimed the review, by economic consultancy Oxera and health data-analytics company Edge Health, “identifies flawed and outdated assumptions” and “reveals testing will capture a vast majority of cases”. However, the PHE


modelling only considered the likelihood of a test on arrival picking up asymptomatic passengers not all those infected. It assumed those with symptoms would not travel. Transport secretary Grant


Shapps made this thinking clear when he told the Airlines 2050 summit last week: “Symptomatic passengers should not be travelling. This is about asymptomatic passengers.” To compound the


difficulties, studies suggest the existing antigen tests airline bodies are demanding be adopted are less sensitive to detecting Covid-19, in particular in asymptomatic cases. The European Centre for


Disease Prevention and Control noted last month that even “when rapid antigen tests are well-validated . . . these tests tend to have lower sensitivity [and] a negative rapid test may not rule out infection”. The World Health


Organization, in guidance on faster diagnostic tests on September 11, noted: “The trade-off for simplicity . . . is a decrease in sensitivity.” It warns: “Do not use antigen


rapid diagnostic tests for airport or border screening.”


Iata warns weak demand will fuel airlines’ cash burn


Carriers could continue to haemorrhage cash for two years beyond the end of 2020, airline association Iata has warned. Iata’s Airlines Financial Monitor


for August to September reported: “The cash-burn rate slowed in Q3 compared to Q2 with the help of cost-cutting measures and robust


70 29 OCTOBER 2020


cargo revenues.” But it warned: “Airlines are expected to continue to burn cash through 2022 as revenues are likely to remain soft.” The association noted:


“Passenger demand continues to lag the rise in seat capacity [and] passenger yields declined in August as airlines sought to improve weak travel demand with price stimulation.” Iata issued a double warning


saying: “The return to service has outpaced the recovery in travel demand. It will be a challenge to airlines to keep fleet costs under


A4E chief tips higher fares and airline consolidation


Ian Taylor


Airfares will rise, there will be fewer flights and smaller airports could go out of business as a result of the Covid crisis. That is the view of Airlines for


Europe (A4E) managing director Thomas Reynaert, who warned: “Flying is not going to get cheaper with all the additional regulations and complexity. It is not going to be easier.” Reynaert accused Europe’s


governments of imposing “crazy” restrictions on travel. “[The crisis] will have an impact on connectivity as well as pricing,” he


Thomas Reynaert


said. “Will you still be able to fly from smaller cities? Will smaller airports still be around?” He said A4E “worked closely


with the EC, the European Aviation Safety Agency and Centre for Disease Prevention and Control” to develop protocols for flying this summer and said when the protocols were issued: “We were quite confident.” But Reynaert told a Global


Business Travel Association (GBTA) European virtual ‘town hall’: “Government health ministers pick and choose what they like. We had a harmonised health solution and then national governments go crazy


for populist reasons. I understand national governments will do what they think best for their population. The challenge is how do you convince 27 or 28 governments to come together jointly?” A4E represents Europe’s leading


carriers including BA owner IAG, easyJet, Ryanair, Lufthansa and Air France-KLM. Reynaert warned: “Europe’s airlines have about six months’ cash to burn. The biggest problem is lack of consumer confidence to travel. The obvious thing is to have coordinated travel restrictions. [But] we can’t convince European health authorities we don’t need quarantines.” He said: “This crisis will trigger


faster consolidation. Airline business models might change. The whole supply chain will be damaged.” Reynaert agreed with Iata’s


forecast of a return to 2019 levels of traffic only by 2024, but warned: “That [forecast] does not take into account additional pandemics or big crises. It just takes account that by the third quarter of next year we have a vaccine generally available.”


control. Airlines are trying to stimulate demand by cutting fares, [but] the recovery in passenger demand lagged capacity developments. “With new waves of Covid-19


cases emerging, reviving passenger demand will be a challenge.”


travelweekly.co.uk


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