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essential reasons”, including mandatory PCR tests before departure “combined with self- isolation, quarantine and contact tracing as well as additional testing for up to 14 days”. “Stricter measures” are


proposed for trips originating from countries such as the UK where a variant has been detected. The EC also proposed updating measures for travel within the EU. The commission agreed to


coordinate travel restrictions across the EU last October but has so far had little impact on decisions by member states. EU leaders did agree a new


colour code for mapping risk areas, adding ‘dark red’ to indicate areas where the virus is at “very high levels” to the existing colours of green, orange, red and grey. The EC also recommended


member states “adopt, maintain or reinforce stay-at-home measures and the temporary closing of certain businesses”. Despite the restrictions,


Lufthansa Group chief executive Carsten Spohr said he expects “some recovery” this summer. In an interview with European


air traffic management body Euro- control, Spohr argued: “Somewhere between the second and third quarters, vaccines will come into play and testing is becoming more professionalised and will give us some recovery for the summer.” However, Eurocontrol


director-general Eamonn Brennan reported: “The situation has deteriorated considerably. We don’t expect to see any significant improvement [across Europe] until after Easter.” Brennan highlighted “the


inconsistency of government restrictions” and said: “There is a lot of uncertainty.”


GBTA members split on pace of business recovery


Confidence has yet to return to the corporate travel sector, but the latest poll of Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) members found more than half expect a return to the office by September. The GBTA survey found


54% of respondents expect most employees to return to the office by the end of the third quarter of this


year. Just 8% had already returned, 17% expected a return in the next four months and 29% within eight months. Almost two in five (37%) had not decided or were unsure. GBTA members were similarly


divided on when business travel might resume. Just 6% said their company had resumed travel, 13% expected a resumption within four months and 29% expected travel to resume within eight months. Almost a third (31%) were undecided or unsure. More than half the respondents


(54%) were no more optimistic about the industry’s recovery


than in December and 25% more pessimistic. Just 21% were more optimistic. The poll, conducted on


January 11-18, drew responses from 733 GBTA members.


Hotels tipped to stay open but debt weighs on sector


Ian Taylor


Hospitality will not see the same rate of closures as in the first period of Covid-19 lockdown because hotels have become “better at controlling costs” while staying open. That is according to Robin


Rossmann, managing director of hospitality data analyst STR, who reported 80% of hotels in Europe were open in mid-January, down from 90% in October. Rossmann said: “We expect a


few more hotels to close but don’t think it will go back to the levels of the first lockdown. First, hotels have got better at controlling costs while remaining open. Second, hotels that stayed open significantly outperformed those which closed and have continued to outperform since.” STR reported only 5% of hotels in


China were closed at the end of 2020 and Rossmann said: “China occupancy in January was on a par with January 2019 excluding hotels that are closed.”


38 28 JANUARY 2021 80%


Proportion of hotels in Europe that were open in mid-January


But he added: “China is different


because of its control of the virus and its huge domestic market.” Hotel occupancy rates appear


highest in Singapore, where the average rate hit 75% in December, and in Dubai where it was 70%. By contrast, the average rate in Europe in December was 14%. Rossmann noted “a lot of


quarantine demand” in Singapore, but described demand in Dubai as “internationally driven”. He argued: “There will be huge pent-up demand as soon as there is the confidence and ability to travel.” However, many hotels face debt restructuring once restrictions are


relaxed. Rossmann warned: “There are very few hotels with debt that are not in default and require some sort of restructuring. “Hotel default rates in the US


are ahead of all other sectors, but not many hotel debt restructurings have happened so far. In most cases, negotiations have been put off because there is still too much uncertainty. “That is likely to remain the


case until there is confidence to underwrite [debt] and negotiate new terms.”


travelweekly.co.uk Robin Rossmann


PICTURES: Shutterstock


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