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ORT Abta’s first virtual Travel Convention last week. Ian Taylor reports


‘Expect EU agreement on aviation even if no deal’


Time is running out for an EU-UK trade deal, but there could be a standalone agreement on aviation even if Brexit negotiations end in no deal, a former senior government advisor told the Travel Convention. Raoul Ruparel, Deloitte global


Brexit insights advisor, said: “The hope now is for intense negotiations and a deal by the end of the month.” That hope was dealt a blow at the


end of last week when prime minister Boris Johnson declared negotiations on a deal to be “over”. The government was due this week to a launch a ‘Time is running out’ campaign to alert businesses to prepare. However, there were reports


formal talks could resume if the EU signalled a willingness to give ground. Ruparel, former advisor on Brexit


to Theresa May, told the convention: “A key sticking point remains state aid. The EU is still looking for clarification on dispute resolution. “A second sticking point is how


disputes are settled. This was brought to the fore by the UK government’s intention to break international law [on the Northern Ireland agreement].


Brexit changes will be significant, warns Petherbridge


Businesses should prepare for “significant changes” from January 1 and not expect the Brexit transition period to be extended, Abta head of public affairs Luke Petherbridge has warned. Petherbridge told the Travel


travelweekly.co.uk Luke Petherbridge Raoul Ruparel “A third is fishing, where the gulf


remains large. The UK is focussed on fishing as an issue where the EU needs to move.” He warned: “We’re talking about


a pretty shallow and narrow deal that would mainly deal with zero tariffs and zero quotas and be very limited on services. 70%-80% of changes will be the same regardless of whether there is a deal or not. So businesses need to get on and make changes now. “We know free movement is


going to end. There will be a new immigration system. A deal will only


help on the margins.” Ruparel argued: “There will be an


aviation agreement. There is broad agreement on aviation, but if there is no deal it could fall away. “Can a separate [aviation]


agreement exist if there is no deal? It can if no deal is amicable. But if it is acrimonious and the UK breaches international law on the Northern Ireland protocols, we could see quite a disruption. It’s unlikely, but we can’t discount it. Even with an acrimonious no deal, we will probably see some intermediary measures.”


Convention: “I don’t believe we’re heading for an extension.” He was responding to Giles


Hawke, Cosmos and Avalon Waterways’ chief executive, who told a convention workshop: “I’m hoping the government will extend the transition. I don’t think many businesses are going to be ready.” Petherbridge said: “The lack


of clarity is a big challenge. We continue to speak to government about contingency plans in the event of no deal. Whatever happens now,


KPMG economist warns of threat to summer 2021


There is a 50% chance of Covid disrupting next summer even if a vaccine is ready by early 2021, a leading economist warned the Travel Convention. KPMG chief economist Yael


Selfin said consumer sentiment for travel was likely to remain low without a vaccine. She suggested a vaccine could


emerge by January, but by April the lead-in time for rolling it out would mean travel restrictions remaining in place next summer. Selfin said: “It may mean we


lose another tourism season. If you have a vaccine by April and you allow four months for getting it to the population to allow you to lift restrictions, allowing for lead times for people to book, the possibility of losing next summer is relatively high. “We need to allow for the


possibility of it not being a normal season next summer. There is a 50% chance of that.” Selfin forecast demand


would remain high for overseas holidays, strong for domestic bookings but “very limited” for business travel.


BUSINESS NEWS


we face pretty significant changes.” He warned: “It doesn’t look as


though we’re heading for a positive outcome on posted workers. “The government has made clear


they want a very basic agreement with the EU with no replacement for the Posted Workers’ Directive. “Our advice to businesses is to


hire staff locally for this winter.” Petherbridge added: “The Pet


Passports issue is a challenge. “Vets have no clue what they should do at the moment.”


22 OCTOBER 2020 39


PICTURE: Robin Stanley


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