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BUSINESS NEWS


Andy Burnham


(inset) will be tested as PM with the Strait of Hormuz still closed


Uncertainty returns as Burnham takes hot seat


ANALYSIS: Gulf warfare stalls regional recovery, reports Ian Taylor


A significant source of uncertainty has returned with escalating military exchanges between the US and Iran. Fragile talks on a settlement


following the signing of a ‘memorandum of understanding’ between the US and Iran in mid-June were declared “over” by President Trump last week – although they appear likely to continue at least through intermediaries. The oil price was rising once


more at the start of this week after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz, through which so much of the world’s oil and refined products pass, once


48 16 JULY 2026


again closed and the US and Iran engaged in nightly exchanges of fire. The extent to which renewed


missile and drone strikes will impact oil and jet fuel costs is unclear. But there has been little time to rebuild stocks, so fresh pressure on prices appears certain down the line. The renewed fighting and resulting


uncertainty seem likely to stall any improvement in consumer sentiment. A return to normality in transit


via the Gulf must likewise be on hold along with a substantial return of tourism to the UAE, with Qatar and Oman – either side of the Emirates


of Dubai and Abu Dhabi – subject to missile and drone strikes along with Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait. Tellingly, one of the major Gulf


carriers postponed plans this week to reveal the extent of travel’s return to the region and its proposals to simulate recovery. Lebanese journalist Kim Ghattas


outlined a likely scenario for the region as missile exchanges resumed, noting: “Few in Washington, Tehran or the Arab world want a return to


Continued on page 46 travelweekly.co.uk


BUSINESSNEWS


PICTURE: Shutterstock/Clare Louise Jackso


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