BUSINESS NEWS last year and outlines prospects for airlines and airports in the coming years


Europe’s aviation recovery last year ‘varied widely’


The recovery in air traffic last year showed “wide variation” across airlines, airports and countries, according to Eurocontrol. Europe’s low-cost carriers led


the recovery, operating 85% of their 2019 capacity overall but with Ryanair ending the year 9% up on its 2019 capacity and Wizz Air 14% up, whereas easyJet was 20% down. The major network carriers


brought back less capacity, ending


BA’s capacity last year was 71% of 2019


holiday destinations fared better with traffic to Palma, Majorca, up 1% on 2019, as was traffic to Greece, while Portugal, Spain, Croatia and Turkey recorded air traffic between 91% and 97% of 2019 levels. Heathrow traffic ended the year


the year at 75% overall. British Airways finished the year at 71% of 2019 capacity, as did Lufthansa, while Air France finished at 80% and KLM at 82%. Europe’s leading airports


“struggled to recover more than 83% of 2019 traffic”. Airports in


20% down on 2019 compared with 24% at Gatwick. Paris Charles de Gaulle fared slightly better at 19%, as did Amsterdam Schiphol on 18% down, but Frankfurt was 26% down. However, the UK with 1.7 million


flights and Germany (1.5 million) still topped the rankings for total traffic. UK domestic air traffic remained 25% down on 2019, but private business aviation was 16% up.


Air traffic ‘will still be 8% down this year on 2019’


Ian Taylor


European air traffic will continue to recover this year but not return to pre-pandemic levels for another two years, according to Eurocontrol. Eurocontrol forecasts Europe’s air


traffic will reach 92% of 2019 levels this year, up from 85% in 2022, and hit 95% in August “as capacity and staffing issues are progressively tackled”. However, a full recovery is not


forecast until 2025 – a year later than Eurocontrol predicted last June. The revision is based on economic output “remaining weak for most states, inflation impacting demand” and consumers showing a “lower propen- sity to fly on economic grounds”. Eurocontrol noted: “The various


downside risks – relating to the economy, fuel prices and staff shortages/industrial relations – are reflected in our updated forecast.” Director general Eamonn


Brennan said: “We predict further travelweekly.co.uk


100 120


%


40 60 80


56%* 45%* 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 100%* 92% 84%


EUROPEAN AIR TRAFFIC FORECAST Percentage v 2019 air traffic


98% 101% 103% 105% 107%


*Recorded traffic


2027 2028


Eurocontrol prediction assumes weak GDP in 2023, high inflation, ‘good’ passenger confidence, growing environmental concerns, some staffing issues. Source: Eurocontrol, October 2022


strengthening [in the market], but huge challenges in matching capacity with demand.” Eurocontrol noted the average


price of jet fuel in Europe rose from $1.10 per gallon in November 2021 to $3.35 last November and warned that, although fuel prices may have peaked at the end of last year, “prices should remain high in 2023”. Its analysis, issued at the start of


this month, found average airfares increased by 14% year on year in


2022, peaking at 29% higher in July, reflecting “sustained demand, reduced flight choice and higher fuel prices”. Europe’s air traffic returned to 83% of 2019’s level in the year, rising steadily from 71% in February to 86% in May and remained at 86%-88% for the remainder of the year. Brennan said: “Airlines and airports were able to rebuild their balance sheets in 2022 and continue to invest. [But] there is still considerable volatility and the recovery is uneven.”


Sector urged to hasten efforts to cut emissions


The aviation industry needs to accelerate activity to meet emissions reduction targets, according to European air traffic management body Eurocontrol, which noted “the growing risk” a warming climate poses to travel. It confirmed long-haul flights


have by far “the highest impact” on CO2 emissions, reporting that over one in four flights (28%) were responsible for 71% of European aviation emissions last year, with one in 20 flights (5.5%) over 4,000km responsible for 44% of emissions. By contrast, flights under 500km – 29% of the total – were responsible for 5.5% of emissions. Eurocontrol reported it assessed


the requirements to meet a target of a 55% reduction in emissions by 2030 compared with 1990 and warned: “Achieving tangible progress requires urgent attention if we’re to remain on track. The pace of change needs to accelerate. A host of initiatives were launched in 2022, but further investment and stronger incentives are required.” Eurocontrol noted the record


heatwave and thunderstorms in Europe last summer “indicated the growing risk of climate change to aviation”. It has joined airports association


ACI Europe in establishing a European Aviation Climate Change Adaptation Working Group.


Long-haul flights over 4,000km account for 44% of all aviation CO2 emissions


12 JANUARY 2023


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