Prepare for the worst case, PwC partner warns
Ian Taylor
ian.taylor@travelweekly.co.uk
Businesses “should be thinking about the worst case” on Brexit and not expect certainty “for some time”, a senior analyst warned the industry last week.
PwC partner Andrew Gray
told an Abta briefing on Brexit: “The risk of no deal is higher than before Christmas. Everyone should be thinking about the worst-case [scenario]. There are going to be unintended consequences and a ripple effect from all businesses having to readjust at the same time.” Gray, who chairs PwC UK’s
Brexit steering committee, told travel leaders: “We’re not expecting any political certainty for some time. You must be ready to respond, but as of now we don’t know to what. If nothing else happens, we’ll be in [for] no deal.” He said: “The UK may need to
Are you Brexit-ready?
PwC surveyed 800 firms asking ‘Are you Brexit-ready, whatever happens?’ It found: n 10% considered their business ready
n40% expected to be ready so long as there is a transition
n 40% reported significant work to do
n 10% had not begun to prepare
seek an extension [of the leaving date], but I don’t see that as an immediate option. It has not been put forward [officially yet] and there would be a number of steps. June 30 has been suggested as [an alternative date]. September 30 has also been suggested. There are challenges with any extension, and there is still a risk of no deal.” Gray told Abta members: “The possibilities of a second referendum or the withdrawal of Article 50
GRAY: ‘The UK government has been remarkably pragmatic’
[triggering Brexit] are remote. To have a referendum would require a major political party to commit to a referendum and neither has.” He noted: “We’ve seen announcements on flying rights.” But he warned: “Right to work [in the EU] won’t be automatic – staff may need a work visa – [and] the industry may need to capture more advance passenger information.” Gray said: “The UK government has been remarkably pragmatic and sought to preserve ways of doing business. We’ve not seen that in other EU states. “People feel a degree of uncertainty. Employees are feeling it. EU nationals are feeling it.”
Scrapping APD would generate more income, Tory MP tells GTMC
Air Passenger Duty “is a disgrace” but uncertainty over Brexit is “nearly over”, a Conservative MP has assured corporate travel leaders. James Heappey, MP for Wells,
told a GTMC leaders’ lunch: “I’m one of a large number of Conservative MPs who want APD cut. We would get far more than we lose if we just got rid of it. APD is a disgrace.” He told the GTMC: “You are
an important industry and we must work with you to mitigate the risks of Brexit. Some of my colleagues believe no deal will be an opportunity. Others believe it will be a calamity. “Neither are true, but provided
we end up with some sort of deal we’ll be fine. “What matters is the uncertainty, and it’s very nearly over.” He suggested any extension to
the Brexit leave date would be limited.
“The only extension possible is a
few weeks,” he said. “The government is not
warming to the idea of months’ more uncertainty.”
‘There will be a Brexit deal as MPs are terrified of no deal’
Corporate travel leaders have been told to expect a deal on Brexit but not via Theresa May pursuing a fresh agreement with the EU. The industry should also
expect Britain’s EU-leave date to be postponed, according to BBC political commentator Steve Richards, who told a Guild of Travel Management Companies (GTMC) industry leaders’ lunch: “[Most] MPs are terrified of no deal.” Yet Richards ruled out a second
referendum or an abandonment of Brexit, insisting: “This is not a Commons that will deliver a
RICHARDS: ‘May will get a deal through but it needs more time’
second referendum or Remain. It will take the UK out of the EU.” Richards described May as “the
most-fragile prime minister in decades” but told the GTMC: “She remains pivotal. She has opted to bring together the [Northern Ireland Loyalist] DUP and the European Reform Group [of Brexiteer Tory MPs] on the promise that she can get a revised deal.” EU leaders “don’t want no deal”, he said, but added: “All the signs from Europe are that they will be unyielding. What May comes back with from the EU won’t be enough.”
Richards suggested “the more
likely dynamic” is that May will then “depend on Labour MPs” to support her Brexit deal. He told corporate travel leaders: “May will get something through in the end because moreMPs are terrified by no deal [than not].” However, he said: “It will need more time.” He assured the sector: “Your
voice will matter post-Brexit. “The focus of whoever is
prime minister will be ‘Britain is open for business’ and ‘Britain is a global power’ and your sector embodies that.”
7 February 2019
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