Continued from page 80
carbon intensity of aviation is outperforming the government’s emissions reduction pathway and can accommodate the additional demand.” ‘Carbon intensity’ refers to
the volume of carbon emitted per passenger per kilometre flown. This has fallen steadily by about 1.5% a year through the introduction of more fuel- efficient aircraft. But that does not stop aviation’s overall CO2 emissions growing if passenger numbers rise by more than 1.5%. The committee notes
aviation was responsible for 7% of UK CO2 emissions in 2022 despite air traffic and emissions being 25% lower than in 2019 as travel recovered from the pandemic. UK aviation emissions will
be required to fall 17% on that 2022 figure by 2035 to hit the government’s reduction target – less than in every other sector of the economy, with surface transport required to cut emissions 58%, industry 69%, and electricity supply 93%. Even other hard-to-abate
sectors such as agriculture (20%) and shipping (22%) have higher reduction targets. But the committee warns aviation won’t hit its target without a block on airport expansion. The government’s Jet Zero
Strategy projects air traffic will increase 70% on 2018 by 2050. The committee recommends no more than a 25% increase. It urges the government “to
incentivise alternative transport modes”, arguing: “Air travel ought to be more expensive relative to lower-emission modes.” The Climate Change
Committee was set up in 2008 to advise the UK and devolved governments on CO2 targets.
Jet Zero Strategy ‘too reliant on nascent tech’
Ian Taylor
The government’s Jet Zero Strategy to reduce aviation emissions “carries considerable risks”, according to the Climate Change Committee report published last week. It notes the long-term trend in
aviation “shows a gradual increase in emissions due to rising demand for long-haul flights only partly being compensated by improved efficiencies”. The UK’s Jet Zero Strategy,
published in July 2022, allows for 70% growth in passenger demand on 2018 by 2050 while “relying heavily on technology to compensate for increased emissions”. The report warns the strategy
“is high-risk due to its reliance on nascent technology – especially rapid SAF [sustainable aviation fuel] uptake and aircraft efficiency savings”. It notes the government does not have alternative policies to
Deben accuses government of ‘lack of urgency’
The Climate Change Committee report accuses the government of “a lack of urgency” and insists “pace should be prioritised” in reducing emissions. Chair Lord Deben – a former
Conservative environment secretary and a minister in the Thatcher government – warns in a foreword to the report: “The
78 6 JULY 2023
UK aviation is tipped to be using ‘just 2% SAF’ by 2030
ensure emissions reductions “if these technologies are not delivered on time and at scale”. It argues: “Demand management
is the most effective way of reducing emissions [and] the government has a range of options to manage demand, such as digital technologies, addressing private flying and providing lower-cost domestic rail travel.” The committee notes UK airports
“continue to develop capacity expansion proposals” and warns: “This is incompatible with the UK’s net zero target. No airport expansions
commitment of government has waned. There is a hesitation to commit fully to key pledges. Our confidence in the achievement of the UK’s 2030 target has markedly declined.” The report, which runs to more
than 430 pages, notes: “For many in the UK, 2022 was the year climate change arrived.” But it argues: “Policy development continues to be slow. Our response to the recent fossil fuel price crisis did not embrace rapid steps . . . to reduce energy demand and grow renewable generation. We have backtracked on fossil fuel commitments.”
should proceed until a UK-wide capacity management framework is in place. This framework should be developed by the Department for Transport [DfT] . . . over the next 12 months and be operational by the end of 2024 at the latest.” From then on, the committee
tells the government: “Any additional airport capacity that would facilitate increased aviation demand should not take place unless corresponding reductions in capacity are made at other UK airports.” The report also notes the
government’s SAF mandate “is delayed and dependent on uncertain feedstock supply” despite the government target of 10% SAF use by 2030. The committee’s ‘pathway’ to emissions reduction is more cautious, assuming just 2% SAF uptake by 2030. Its recommendations include urging
the DfT to “track the carbon intensity of, and demand for, different ticket types (eg business, first class, economy) and demand for private flying”.
Lord Deben The committee warns that for
the UK to reach the government’s commitment of “at least a 68% fall in emissions from 1990 levels [by 2030] . . . the rate of emissions reduction outside the power sector must almost quadruple”.
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PICTURES: Shutterstock/Lubo Ivanko, oneinchpunch, Peter Gudella; David Sheales
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