Continued from page 64


travel arm Egencia in May 2021. The establishment of GBT


Group, the listing and purchase of CWT were predicated on expectations of a strong corporate travel recovery and need to invest in technology. Addressing the Institute of


Travel Management in May 2022, Abbott noted: “There will be pressure for consolidation because of the requirement for investment in product and technology. We’re market leader with revenue of $40 billion in a $1.2 trillion sector, and even if 10% of corporate travel doesn’t come back [post-Covid] it’s still a huge market.” In fact, Amex GBT’s


transactions last year totalled $28 billion and it reported a net loss of $136 million. That followed losses of $229 million in 2022, $475 million in 2021 and $619 million in 2020 and the company carried a net debt of $886 million into this year. Initially, the CWT deal will


dilute GBT Group’s value since the company will issue 71.7 million new shares and grant CWT’s shareholders a 13% stake while swallowing CWT’s debt. CWT spent 24 hours in bankruptcy protection in November 2021 which halved its debt to $750 million and saw the Carlson family cede ownership to its creditors. In the meantime, airlines


continue to report a lag in the recovery of corporate travel. British Airways parent IAG noted “corporate travel continues to return more slowly” in February and Lufthansa reported “business travel continued to recover at a slower pace” in March. The Amex GBT-CWT deal


is expected to be finalised in the second half of this year pending regulatory approval.


European flight recovery forecast revised to 2026


Ian Taylor


Airline capacity in Europe is recovering slower than anticipated and a return to 2019 levels is now not expected until 2026. That is according to European air


navigation body Eurocontrol, which has revised its air traffic forecasts for 2024-30 after recording “lower than expected volumes” since November. Traffic in Europe returned to 93% of the 2019 level during July to September last year and hit 95% in October but fell back in November and December to 92%-93% as carriers switched to winter schedules. Eurocontrol previously forecast


traffic would return to 97% of 2019’s level this January and February, but instead it recorded a fall to 90% in January and 91% in February. In its latest forecast, Eurocontrol


now predicts traffic will reach 96% of the 2019 level this year and 99% in 2025, surpassing the previous level in


European traffic in mid-March was ‘93%’ of the 2019 level


2026, although flight numbers should hit 2019 levels next summer. In an update on March,


Eurocontrol noted traffic in mid- month reached 93% of the 2019 level and was marked by an improvement in punctuality not only on 2023 but on 2019. The proportion of on-time departures increased by 3.6 percentage points on 2019 and on-time arrivals by 5.1 points. Eurocontrol noted half the


en route delays in mid-March were caused by capacity and staffing


issues, with France accounting for 46%, Spain 15%, Switzerland 13%, Portugal 12%, Germany 8% and the UK just 3%. UK traffic remained 8% down on 2019, the same as in France, but Germany was down 22%, while traffic to and from Spain was up 8% and Turkey up 4%. Traffic at Heathrow was on a par with 2019, while Gatwick remained 13% down. The UK-US was the busiest


long-haul route with more than twice as many weekly flights as Germany- US. Traffic between Europe and the US overall was up 12% on 2019. The Eurocontrol forecast to 2030


assumes some “diminishing” demand on domestic routes and “evolving travel habits influenced by environmental considerations” as well as constraints on airport capacity and aircraft delivery delays “putting pressure on flight growth”. It notes about 1% of demand in 2030 “may be lost due to missed airport capacity at major airports”.


Carnival reports record $5.4bn revenue for Q1


Carnival Corporation reported record first-quarter revenue of $5.4 billion, with booking volumes hitting an all-time high and prices “considerably higher” year on year. The parent of company Cunard,


Holland America Line and P&O Cruises reported an operating profit of $276 million and net loss of $214 million for the three


62 4 APRIL 2024


months to February, improving on a $686 million loss in the same quarter last year. Customer deposits reached


a first-quarter record of almost $7 billion, up $1.3 billion on the previous record a year earlier. Chief executive Josh Weinstein


hailed “a fantastic start to the year . . . that outperformed guidance on every measure”. He said: “A monumental wave season achieved all-time-high booking volumes at considerably higher prices.” Weinstein reported “strong


demand across our brands and all core deployments” and forecast


Josh Weinstein


“a step change improvement in operating performance” and “an even stronger 2025”. He suggested P&O Cruises’


marketing campaign, ‘Holiday Like Never Before’, “really hit home” with British guests.


travelweekly.co.uk


PICTURE: Shutterstock/G Tipene


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