9.55535-S1. The newer petrol grades 9.55535-DM1, -GS1 and -T2 are all growing but still don’t offer the same volume potential as either S1 or S2.
Viscosity Trends Viscosity trends are very clear. Whilst 5W-30 and 5W-40 have the highest VIO in the total parc, with 5W-30 appearing in ¾ of all vehicles, the last decade has seen the rise of the 0W’s with 0W-30 and 0W-20 being the second and third highest VIO viscosity respectively in the period 2018-2020. 0W-16, mainly appearing on Honda CR-V, Lexus ES and UX, Suzuki Ignis, Swift, Jimny, Across & Baleno and Toyota Aygo, CH-R, Camry, Corolla, RAV 4 and Yaris, accounts for 2% of the 2018-2020 registrations with a volume potential of 5m litres. Latest Yaris Hybrid models now have the JASO grade GLV-1 with a 0W-8 specification and others are following. 0W viscosities provide many benefits - Less wear on start-up, faster warm-up cycles, and improved economy. 0W-40 is the only 0W to be in decline, reaching a peak in the 2007-2009 period, it has dropped to 15% of the parc in 2020 due to it being associated mainly with diesel specifications, which now favour 0W-20 or 0W-30.
Transmission Fluids
Switching to transmission fluids, whilst the trend is towards Dual-Clutch Transmission (DCT) or Continuous Variable Transmission (CVT) which offer better fuel efficiency, the biggest specifications in VIO and volume are still manual transmissions. Out of the top 10 specifications by VIO for the period 2018-2020, only one is an ATF fluid, ASW-1, which is used by Fiat Chrysler, GM, PSA and Toyota for standard auto transmissions. GL-4 and GL-5 are both still in the top five along with two VW specs – 052 527 and 055 512. Both are used extensively on VAG diesel engines with the former also used on 4WD. Even in 2020, the highest VIO specification for DCT or CVT is the Mercedes Benz Sheet No. 236.22 for DCT which only appeared in 2018 and is in 1.5% of the
2020 registrations. Pentosin FFL7 is the next highest at 1.4%, and then Ford’s DCT fluid M2C218A1 at 1.3%. The highest VIO CVT fluid is Toyota CVTFE, which actually appeared back in 2007 and has now built up to be 1% of total registrations in 2020. So whilst DCT and CVT fluids are growing, they are still a small % of the parc, as not many of the mainstream European OEMs have developed these transmissions types.
As far as Gear Oil viscosity is concerned, whilst 75W-80 continues to be around 30% of the parc even in 2020, it is 75W which is the dominant viscosity, showing in circa 70% of 2020 registrations. 70W is also increasing its share, touching 10% of registered vehicles in the period 2016-2020. Alfa Romeo Guilia, Chevrolet Aveo, Cruz, Malibu, Genesis G70 and Hyundai Accent, Creta and Elantra are the major models which carry it. 75W-85 which used to be at a similar level of VIO to 75W-80 is now less than 10%, having been largely superseded by 75W and 70W oils.
Summary
It takes some time for trends to be felt at a total Europe level. Hybrid & fully electric, DCT & CVT, low viscosity, low ash specifications are all starting to cut through in the last five years, but it will take a good decade to really see the full impact in the parc. There are many political and economic uncertainties caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine with further base oil and gas prices price rises driving European governments to seek faster decarbonisation. It would be a brave person to predict the next five years.
LINK
www.oats-solutions.com
Figure 4: Analysis showing top 10 viscosities in the total parc by year as a % of the registrations for that year. Source; Oats.
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LUBE MAGAZINE NO.168 APRIL 2022
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