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LaingBuisson: demand for residential care could rise up to 23.5 per cent by 2031


UK demand for care in residential settings for older people is projected to rise on pre-Covid levels by up to 23.5 per cent by 2031, according to a report by consultants LaingBuisson. The upper forecast for projected demand


in the 31st edition of the UK edition of LaingBuisson’sCare Homes for Older People expects a rise of 93,000 occupied beds from the March 2020 level of 395,100. The forecast projects the volume of


demand for care homes pro rata with official projections of numbers of deaths. A more conservative forecast based on


population ageing applied to future official population projections puts care demand at 412,000 occupied beds by 2031 – a projected increase of 17,000, or 4.3 per cent. LaingBuisson meanwhile found Covid


resulted in an eight per cent fall in care setting occupancy rates. The 393,100 occupied beds – 85 per cent of total availability – fell to 363,000, or 75 per cent, between March and September 2020. Analysis of the data from the first wave of


the pandemic shows that the 30,000 Covid-19 or other excess deaths among English older care home residents represented over half the excess mortality across England as a whole. The proportion then subsided to between 23 per cent and 28 per cent during the second wave. Assuming there is no lasting change to the


new admission rates, LaingBuisson estimates the balance of new admissions and deaths will


bring the care home population back to its historic track by the spring of 2023. LaingBuisson found Covid hit the value of


UK services for older people in residential settings by around four cent, falling from £17.3 billion as of 31 March 2020 to around £16.6 billion six months later. The consultant estimates sector-wide


EBITDAR (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortisation and restructuring or rent costs) was depleted by three to four percentage points in 2020, mitigated by reimbursement of exceptional costs from local authorities and CCGs.


Prime Minister: We will deliver social care reform ‘later this year’


Prime Minister Boris Johnson has vowed to deliver the government’s long-awaited reforms for social care later this year as he hinted at a new long-term plan for the sector. Addressing the House of Commons Liaison


Committee on 13 January, Johnson said the pandemic has highlighted the difficulties that the social care sector faces. “It clearly needs reform and it needs


improvement, but there is also the issue of people being forced to sell their homes to pay for their care. That is something that we want to address, and we will be bringing forward plans later this year.” Responding to health select committee


chairman Jeremy Hunt’s question about whether social care sector should have a ten- year plan like the NHS, Johnson agreed the social care sector should have a plan. “It should have a long-term plan. Clearly, if


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you are going to reform social care, you are also going to need younger people. “Obviously, it is more difficult for older


people, but you are going to need the younger generation to start thinking about the eventual cost of their social care. We need to start having that conversation with the public.” Care England meanwhile said it is


“desperate” for the government to act upon its manifesto commitment to reform adult social care before it is “too late”. “Local authorities have in recent weeks


posited fee increases of only 0.9 per cent in some parts of the country whilst others have suggested no fee increase at all for care homes with nursing,” said chief executive Professor Martin Green. “Such pitiful fee increases which do not fully


account for increases in the National Living Wage let alone care providers’ costs which have


risen by as much as 10 per cent during the pandemic, leaves the sector and those who rely on it in a very precarious situation,” he added. Care England called for a £7 billion injection


into the adult social care sector in line with the health select committee’s recommendation.


www.thecarehomeenvironment.com • February 2021 The pre-Covid average EBITDAR for all older


care home operators is estimated at around 20 per cent of revenue. LaingBuisson said one of the few positives


from the pandemic is that it looks likely to trigger an acceleration of the adoption of digital solutions in the social care sector. NHSX is understood to be sufficiently


convinced of the merits of establishing better connectivity between social care and health services, and of making provision for NHS funding of substantial investment in digital technologies for social care providers in the near future, the report states.


©LaingBuisson


©Parliament TV


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