WORLD OF PIGS ▶▶▶
The first includes the growth of the number of sows. The sec- ond is the improvement of sow productivity. Especially for the second phase, China still has a long way to go. He says that Chinese pig farms have great difficulty in finding suffi- cient capable staff needed for these expansion plans. Dutch animal nutrition company Agrifirm recently estimated that average production in China is most likely below 20 piglets weaned per sow per year.
Happiness in China. Another batch of breeding pigs has arrived.
fairly early stage, leading to the depopulation of only part of the pig inventory. ASF virus is still strongly present in China, and pig production companies do keep getting infected with ASF. On farms in in- fected areas, all staff have to comply fully with hygiene meas- ures to avoid the virus being introduced. One mistake could have catastrophic consequences. There are other challenges as well. The cold, for instance, as winter temperatures drop to below 0°C in northern China, ideal for viruses to thrive. In addition, ASFv is not the only pathogen – others prevail too, such as Porcine Epidemic Diar- rhoea virus. Add to that the use of finisher pigs in the breed- ing phase, with piglets born being weaker in general, and the cocktail is risky to say the least. In short, the question of when China’s pig production will be completely back on track is difficult to answer. The uncertain- ty is huge, and China’s pig industry will most likely have to live with the fact that it will have to produce pig meat in an area where the ASF virus will be endemic.
Production recovery in 2024 Yet projections and plans are being made, not least by the Chinese authorities themselves. At the end of last year, Bei- jing called for a rapid recovery of pig meat production, hop- ing that for consumers prices will decrease, leading to lower inflation levels. Companies now present in China are noticing that the recovery of the pig sector has been accelerating since late last year. China, like no other country in the world, is capable of the renaissance and facilitation of a sector in a relatively short amount of time. Rabobank expects that by 2024, Chinese pig meat production will be back to pre-ASF levels. Breeding organisations active in China have, by and large, agreed with the bank’s projections. Hendrix Genetics representatives add that across the Chinese pig industry there is great determina- tion to achieve targets set to reconstruct the industry. Van Orsouw, PIC, discerns two different phases in this surge.
8 ▶ PIG PROGRESS | Volume 37, No. 2, 2021
Continuing to invest It is fair to conclude that in the next few years, China will con- tinue to invest in strengthening its own breeding structure. Hendrix Genetics deduces that tendency from the willingness of Chinese state and private companies to start joint ventures with international breeding companies. Due to the disease pressure, pig breeding in China has known its ups and downs, with many important lessons learnt. Nucléus has proven that it is possible to maintain SPF levels at a nucleus farm. The French breeder, however, expects that importing breeding pigs will continue to be necessary for China. Putting the Chinese initiatives into perspective, export manager Rogon remarks that this message of China develop- ing its own breeding sector has been repeated frequently over the last 20 years, without actually getting close to achieving it. For now the demand for pork is so large, that im- porting breeding pigs will be of major importance in getting the shelves filled.
New construction sites
Exemplifying the reconstruction of the Chinese pig sector is what Muyuan Foods is building. Late in 2020 the news broke that Muyuan is building very probably the largest pig farm in the world, in Nanyang, central China. Close to that city a farm is being constructed for 84,000 sows with weaned piglets, in 21 pig houses. It is a risky step, as the large farms are certainly not im- mune to ASF and other pig diseases going around in Chi- na. The company’s plans are therefore often followed by insiders with a certain level of scepticism. However, large farms are increasingly responsible for pork production in China. High prices for pigs makes investing relatively easy. Last January, the Chinese pig price was high at € 4.89/kg liveweight. Rabobank projects that this price will drop to € 3/kg, as in- creasing production will push prices down. In the longer term, further price drops will be a risk for these large com- panies. Their cost price is around € 2.55/kg meat. There will be a time when increased production will lead to rev- enue prices sinking below cost price. Then losses could suddenly add up.
PHOTO: NUCLÉUS
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