and are processed into meal there. The hot market is pig feed, although the use of soy in chicken feed production has increased recently as well.” China is currently rebuilding its national pig herd after heavy losses in recent years due to Af- rican Swine Fever. Currently, there are over 440 million live pigs in China, notes Asim Anand, Senior Editor at SP Global. Brazil also exports sizeable amounts of whole soybeans to Europe, and additional volumes to Asia, the Middle East and other parts of the world, says Vogel. Soybean meal (SBM) produced in Brazil is exported to many countries with Eu- rope being the largest destination followed by countries in eastern and southern Asia. “We expect the soybean acreage in Brazil to continue to increase,” says Vogel. “In the past five years, it has grown by 2 to 3% a year, but already for this year’s crop growth was close to 4.5%. And it may be even larger than that in 2022 as demand is strong and farmers are making good margins given high global prices and a rela- tively weak Brazilian currency.” Apart from China and the EU, Anand says Thailand, Turkey and Russia are major importers of South American soybeans, along with Vietnam, Indonesia and Algeria. However, he adds that soybean meal for feed is in huge demand within both Brazil and Argentina amid their soaring meat production for export, making it tough for soy- bean exporters to procure the volumes they’d like to ship. He adds that Argentina’s weak economy, high export taxes and dual-currency system are challenges for soybean export there in comparison to Brazil.
Push for European soy Vogel notes that in the EU, there is a relatively stable livestock population and, while soybean production in the EU has in- creased over the last decade, meal made for stock feed from EU soybeans only currently amounts to about 7% of what’s needed. “We need 28-29 million tonnes in the EU, not includ- ing the UK, and only about 2 million tonnes of this is from soybeans grown domestically,” he says. “The rest is imported, with over half of the EU’s needs coming from Brazil and Ar- gentina as soybean meal. The remaining 35% stems from im- ported soybeans processed in the EU, largely again from Bra- zil and Argentina, and a little from North America and Paraguay. At this point and for the foreseeable future, the EU will need to continue to import soybean meal for livestock feed if we want to maintain current levels of meat consump- tion.” However, Soya Europe President Matthias Krön notes that if we look at all of Europe, soybean production is grow- ing and the potential to increase acreage is very high. He ex- plains that soybeans are an excellent choice for crop farmers across Europe, especially in Ukraine and Serbia, because there are now fewer crop protection products available and nitro- gen fertilizer will continue to be very expensive. “Soybeans fix their own nitrogen and grow well in many regions without any inputs,” Krön observes. “The crop can also be grown in more northern countries, like maize, and more farmers are
learning how to grow soybeans. There are also subsidies available. There are 10 million tonnes grown now in Europe and this will grow to 15 million tonnes in the next nine years, 80% of which will go into animal feed. Globally, the question of whether we have reached ‘peak’ meat consumption is very difficult to answer. Consumption levels in China are similar to those in Europe now and Europe’s consumption is decreasing. I advise everyone not to underestimate European soybeans when it comes to meeting our livestock feed needs. We will continue to use a mixture of both imports and domestic soy- beans with a goal of more sustainable global soybean pro- duction everywhere”, he says. To help European agriculture become more sustainable, the European Feed Manufacturers’ Federation (FEFAC) released its most-recent soy sourcing guideline document in February 2021.
Brazil to increase production According to the scientists who published the Nature Sus- tainability paper, soybeans are grown in many areas of South America. More than half of the world’s soybean production currently comes from South America, where the soybean har- vested area has increased since 2000 by 160% in Brazil and by 57% in Argentina. Both satellite imagery and site verification were used to identify the main areas: the Amazon Rainforest, the Atlantic Forest, the Cerrado scrubland, the Chaco dry for- est, the Chiquitania savanna, the Pampas grassland, the Pan- tanal wetland and the Caatinga thorn-scrub forest. Their study reveals that soybean coverage in South America in- creased from 26.4 million hectares (65.2 million acres) in 2001 to 55.1 million hectares (136.2 million acres) in 2019, an area larger than California. Regarding the past season (2020-2021), according to the Brazilian government report ‘Projections of Agribusiness Brazil 2020/21 to 2030/31,’ soybean production is currently about 137.6 million tonnes, the most ever pro- duced. Production in Brazil is led by the states of Mato Grosso with 27%, Rio Grande do Sul with 15%, Paraná with 15%, Goiás with 10% and Mato Grosso do Sul with 8%. As stated in the report, factors such as production expansion, cattle herd size and land prices “show a clear trend of agricultural growth towards the North, mainly towards the states of Rondônia, Pará and Tocantins.” In ten years (2030/31), Brazilian soybean production is projected to be 178.2 million tonnes, an in- crease of almost 30%. Domestic consumption of soybeans is expected to reach 60 million tonnes at that point, but could reach as high as 67.9 million tonnes. “It should grow in the coming years just above the consumption of maize, which is projected to increase by 22.8% between 2021 and 2030,” state the report’s authors, “both products being essential in the preparation of animal feeds.” In terms of Brazil’s soybean exports in 2030-2031, they are projected to be 117.8 million tonnes. However, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) projection is 123.4 million tonnes, which will total 55.5% of the world soybean exports.
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