$0.51 $0.44 $0.40 $0.38


$0.20 $0.00


Electric Vehicles (EVs) There is a lot of buzz about electric cars … and Tesla.


The advancement in the technology is spilling into the school bus market. Currently, the capital cost of electric vehicles remains more expensive than traditional gas- or diesel-powered vehicles. This fact is not lost on many people in the school bus


industry who can’t justify paying $350,000 for a new electric bus, when for the same purchase amount, they could buy at least three diesels. But when factoring in maintenance and fuel costs, alone, EVs are dramatically cheaper to operate. The largest cost of EVs historically has been the


batteries. But these, like Moore’s law proves, have been experiencing exponential price/performance improve- ments. Just look at the dramatic cost declines: Battery costs have declined 85 percent over just eight years. And the decline cost is continuing. Bloomberg NEF (BNEF) in 2016 began analyzing the


average cost of gas-powered vehicles, which are of- ten called ICE—Internal Combustion Engines. BNEF concluded that the price of EV components would fall dramatically, and that by 2025 they would become cheaper than gas-powered vehicles on the purchase price, alone. That’s only about five years away.


2004 2006


EV share of vehicle fleet by segment


2008 2010 2012 2014 Share of fleet


90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%


2019 2025 Source: BloombergNEF But BNEF had to dramatically change its forecast,


because battery costs are falling far faster than the com- pany had predicted. BNEF now predicts that EVs will be cheaper than gas powered cars by 2022. Are you already


2030 2035 2040 Buses


Light commercial


Passenger


Medium commercial


Heavy commercial


2016E 2018E 2020E


34 School Transportation News • SEPTEMBER 2019


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