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FASHION AND LUXURY AIRFREIGHT ENTERS A POST-PEAK ERA


BY Anastasiya SIMSEK


AS fashion and luxury sales growth continues to cool across key markets, the air freight industry is confronting a shift in one of its long-standing demand pillars. Recent forecasts from McKinsey’s State of Fashion 2024 report show fashion retail sales stagnating in Europe and the US through 2026, with only modest gains expected in China. For air cargo providers, this signals a slower-growth environment where flexibility may outweigh sheer volume. “In Europe, GDP growth is expected to remain steady,


underpinned by a resilient labour market and stable unemployment rates. Even so, consumers are expected to remain cautious, trading down across purchase categories. As for China, GDP growth is expected to slow, and disposable income growth is also projected to fall below 2024 and 2025 levels.” Where fashion once drove robust volumes across e-commerce


and express channels—especially during the post-pandemic retail surge—forecasts now point to a flatter trajectory. In Europe, fashion retail growth has dipped from double digits in 2022 to just 2 percent in 2024, a rate expected to hold through 2026. The US shows a similar slowdown, though some recovery is projected by 2025. China’s figures have fluctuated more


sharply, with a steep rise in 2023 followed by steady declines. Luxury retail mirrors this trend. European and US markets have


trended downward since 2022, while China is projected to see stronger growth by 2026. These movements are prompting many fashion brands to rethink supply chain strategies, particularly for long-haul air cargo. Although total fashion retail growth is cooling, the sector continues to underpin air freight in more targeted ways. “The luxury segment, meanwhile, is projected to see modest


improvements across markets after a dif ficult 2025, supported by a flurry of creative resets that fashion leaders hope will inject excitement into the industry. Brands are again investing in the US luxury market: retail square footage rose 65 percent in the first half of 2025, compared with a decline the year prior, reflecting ef forts to restore growth.” Cross-border e-commerce remains active, particularly around


limited-edition collections and seasonal drops. But with lower consumer confidence and cautious spending, the flow of goods is more fragmented: less bulk replenishment, more small-batch, high-turnover shipments. For freight operators, this translates into


shorter lead times, fluctuating volumes, www.aircargoweek.com and tighter


margins. Air cargo providers closely tied to fashion retail may need to revisit lane planning, particularly on routes previously dominated by high-speed fashion replenishment. The outlook for luxury goods also signals change. With demand


softening in Europe and the US, brands are increasingly exploring regional sourcing and distribution strategies. While China is expected to regain momentum in luxury by 2026, many global players are reducing reliance on traditional long-haul corridors. This shift may depress volumes on some transcontinental lanes, while


boosting intra-regional air freight, par ticularly within


Europe and North America. Cargo providers will need to balance capacity strategies accordingly, placing greater emphasis on network agility than scale. The fashion sector may no longer deliver double-digit


growth, but it remains a key vertical for time-sensitive freight, particularly in e-commerce. The challenge for cargo operators lies in meeting rising service expectations within a market of lower volume certainty. As McKinsey’s data suggests, the years ahead will be less about expansion


and more about adaptation. For air cargo, this demands operational flexibility, smarter capacity planning, and closer alignment with retail’s evolving pace.


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