AIR CARG O WEEK


PERISHABLES F


RESILIENCE AMID VOLATILITY


BY Edward HARDY


T 12


“The main risk isn’t demand volatility, it comes down to execution.”


he cold chain logistics sector has proven remarkably resilient to macroeconomic fluctuations and trade-policy uncertainty, thanks to the non-discretionary nature of its cargo and long-term planning cycles in life sciences. Pharmaceutical products, vaccines, and biologics continue to move regardless of geopolitical disruption,


creating stable demand patterns that many other logistics segments cannot match. Regulatory requirements for temperature integrity further embed clients in long-term relationships, raising switching costs and creating a structural stickiness that enhances resilience over the next decade. Execution remains the primary operational risk in this space, rather than


shifts in demand. Sophisticated operators who combine compliance, validated infrastructure, and operational expertise are well placed to withstand market turbulence. Furthermore, the ongoing expansion of healthcare complexity and tightening food safety standards globally suggests that demand durability will remain high, supporting investment and M&A activity. Investors and operators alike are recognising that this “stickiness” is not just a temporary advantage but a durable feature underpinning strategic decisions across regions. Marijan Ljubic, Director at Logisyn Advisors, explained: “Cold chain


benefits from demand that is fundamentally non-discretionary. Food and pharmaceuticals don’t pause because of GDP cycles or trade friction. People need food and medicine regardless of tariff increases or recession. Regulatory requirements around temperature integrity also create stickier customer relationships and higher switching costs than in ambient logistics. “Over a 5–10 year horizon, those advantages look durable, particularly as


healthcare complexity increases and food safety standards tighten globally. The main risk isn’t demand volatility, it comes down to execution, but the underlying need for cold chain capacity isn’t going away.” Niall Balfour, Managing Director at Cold Chain Technologies UK, added:


“Unlike many commodity markets, the life sciences sector tends to follow long planning cycles, stable demand curves, and essential global distribution patterns. Pharmaceutical products, vaccines, and biologics must move regardless of geopolitical disruption or changing trade policy, which gives cold chain logistics an underlying resilience that general cargo does not enjoy. Moreover, there is a structural stickiness to the partnerships in this sector. “Pharma companies require validated, compliant,


discipline can be a liability, with complexity threatening margins if not paired with responsive management and standardised processes. Emerging and mid-growth markets are a particular focus for M&A activity,


driven by expanding healthcare access, clinical trials, and underdeveloped cold chain infrastructure. Operators with strong local management, diversified customer bases, and digital visibility are best placed to manage geopolitical and infrastructure risk. Meanwhile, ESG and digital monitoring are increasingly critical, acting as valuation drivers rather than hygiene factors, and favouring operators that can embed sustainability into operations at scale. These trends suggest a continuing consolidation of smaller players and a premium placed on specialist expertise integrated with global reach. Ljubic noted: “These markets combine expanding healthcare access and


underdeveloped cold chain infrastructure, so the growth runway is compelling. But underwriting needs to be disciplined. Investors should prioritise assets with localised management teams to lean on their local market knowledge, and diversified customer bases to mitigate risk in case there is any operational turbulence in transition that could affect service quality and, in turn, jeopardise customer relationships. “Returns can be excellent, but only if you price in volatility and the


associated risk appropriately. Increasingly, PE is underwriting cold chain as infrastructure-like. Stable cash flows support leverage, while bolt-ons and operational improvements drive upside.” Balfour explained: “Growth markets are where demand for pharmaceuticals,


vaccines, and biologics is expanding fastest, driven by rising healthcare investment and the expansion of clinical trials into new geographies. For global providers, acquisitions in these regions offer two strategic benefits: network completeness to ensure global customers experience the same solution portfolio anywhere in the world; and local expertise, with specialised staff who understand the regulatory, cultural, and infrastructural nuances of their region. “For investors, underwriting risk requires a blend of robust due diligence


repeatable shipping


solutions, which makes them less likely to switch providers purely on short- and long-term cost considerations. Another advantage is the operating model flexibility Cold Chain Technologies can offer. Customers can choose to buy or lease, aligning their temperature-controlled capacity with market conditions or investment preferences.”


Scale, technology, and emerging dynamics Scale remains a defining competitive advantage in cold chain logistics, though the nature of that scale is evolving. Large operators can leverage global networks to improve fleet utilisation, reduce empty returns, and spread capital intensity across reusable containers, while also investing in renewable energy and other sustainability initiatives. However, scale without operational


ACW 13 APRIL 2026 www.aircargoweek.com


and a diversified operational footprint. Partnering with local teams, building redundancy across lanes, and ensuring digital visibility of assets and performance are essential in markets where infrastructure or governance may be variable.”


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