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years. The industry has already seen evidence of this, with a minor softening in demand that began in March. Compounded


Annual Growth Rate


(CAGR) for Revenue Passenger Miles (RPM) for the three year period ending in 2019 is 6.4%. When compared to the outlook for the next three year period, RPM CAGR is anticipated to be 4.3%. Airlines have anticipated this decline


and are working to match Available Seat Mile (ASM) growth rate with that of RPM, resulting in maintaining Load Factor (LF=RPM/ASM) at a strong 82%, which is considered to be optimal for airline profitability. There are two key factors addressing ASM growth, there are airframe retirements and deliveries. With the growing number of retirements in 2021 and 2022, the airlines can maintain an 82% load factor with only moderate growth in 2021 and 2022. In spite of the anticipated correction,


the backlog continues to grow with orders still outpacing deliveries. Generally speaking, wide body airframes remaining relatively unaffected during the correction. The majority of the burden will be placed on narrow bodies. Regional jets will experience a 13.8% Compounded Annual Growth Rate for the forecast years. Engine deliveries are expected to hit a record level in 2019, just over 4100, and remain flat through the correction.


Referencing the Deliveries vs. Retirements graph, it should be noted that even though 2020 deliveries are expected to be 1,970, approximately 400 of these aircraft were produced in 2019, reducing the number of aircraft to be manufactured in 2020 to approximately 1,600 units, When considering all commercial


jet deliveries, the Compounded Annual Growth Rate for the plan years 2020- 2022 is estimated at 0.8%. Breaking this into its constituents, Airliners, or commercial jets carrying 100 passengers or more, will experience a moderate decline in Compounded Annual Growth


Continued January 2020 ❘ 11 ®


The


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