CURRENCY WATCH
had been trademarks of the previous three years.
BITCOIN/USD As
article and first Bitcoin forecast, the
stated in the last quarter’s emergence of Bitcoin
has
been intriguing to me as a 37-year veteran of the currency markets. I have been able to provide t e ch n ic a l m a r k e t forecasting for all assets for these many years, but have always steered clear of highly illiquid assets due to their high volatility. Wit hou t c o n d o n ing c
r ypt o -
currencies or giving them more credence than they deserve in their infancy, I have decided to provide an initial forecast.
The amount of data and only a two-year timeline of data is insufficient to make the type of longer-term forecasts to which I am accustomed. Nonetheless, after the meteoric rise to 18720, our forecast decline to retest 9425 strong shorter-term support for March 2018 left the shorter, medium-term technicals neutral/ bearish. We are forecasting a
and yielding a retest of 4030 strong medium-term support over a month) would
alter this
bearish medium-term forecast. SUMMARY The U.S. Dollar continues
build its
further decline to 5975 through May 2018 in a
resulting very
broad and still volatile medium- term outlook [5975 – 11780] into August 2018. Only a monthly close above 11780 (yielding 16460 strong medium-term resistance over the subsequent two months) or a monthly close below 5925 (increasing bearish momentum
FX
addition, after a rally in USD/ JPY to 110.20, a decline again to 104.30 will reinforce the imminent new leg down in the Dollar.
In commodities, Gold, which completed its longer-term bottom in 2017, will continue to consolidate into late this year before higher to 1525 into 2019 in consort with the EUR/USD rally. Crude Oil will also follow suit in a weak rally to retest 69.20 in a resumed correlation with the declining Dollar.
Lastly,
and in the big picture, USD/ CHF and EUR/ CHF
continue
both to
indicate that the final stages of the forecast
still to long-term top, with
the last quarter being a typically sharp move down followed by consolidation. Any significant bearish U.S. Dollar momentum will not develop until the next move late this year to 1.3190. In
seven-year bull market occurred as forecast in the last quarter of 2017. After a probable year-long top building in the Dollar and bottom building in commodities through 2017, we continue to forecast an emergence of a new bull market in commodities through late 2018, reversing recent trends. Good luck and good trading!
Keith Raphael President
Crosscurrents Investment Advisory FX TRADER MAGAZINE April - June 2018 33
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45 |
Page 46 |
Page 47 |
Page 48 |
Page 49 |
Page 50 |
Page 51 |
Page 52 |
Page 53 |
Page 54 |
Page 55 |
Page 56
