FX CURRENCY WATCH term technicals divergent. We are USD/JPY
forecasting a retest of 110.20 through May 2018, then lower again to 104.30 into September in the resulting lower, choppy medium-term consolidation [ 104.30 – 110.30] through September 2018. Only a monthly close now below 104.30 (reigniting bearish medium-term momentum and resulting in a decline to retest 100.20 over two months) or a monthly close above 113.40 (resulting in a strong retest of 118.60 over three months) would alter the mixed, neutral/bearish medium-term outlook.
NOTE: EUR/JPY monthly close back above 125.90 in July 2017 terminated further long-term declines. We are forecasting a rally to retest 137.50 through August 2018, still in the sharply higher outlook [127.55 – 137.50] into the fourth quarter of 2018.
USD/CHF USD/CHF
to retest 1.3155 over the subsequent three months) or a monthly close back above 1.5095 (resulting in a rally to 1.5930 weak long-term resistance over four months) would alter our broad, neutral/bullish medium-term outlook through August 2018.
NOTE: EUR/GBP - We continue to forecast a retest of .8380, out to May 2018 from February 2018, still within
30 FX TRADER MAGAZINE April - June 2018
[.8210 - .8905] into September 2018. USD/JPY
In our previous quarterly article, we stressed a choppy, neutral/bearish medium-term outlook culminating in a decline to 108.15 from 115.75 into July 2018. Te premature monthly close below 108.15 in February 2018 and decline to 104.30 leſt medium-
I am sorry to again state one of my strongest beliefs about the currency market; that the Swiss Franc remains the bellwether, proactive currency. Indicative of the forecast waning bullish long-term momentum in the U.S. Dollar, USD/CHF rallied to 1.0040 in October 2017, just shy of the 1.0110 objective for November 2017. Simultaneously, the EUR/ CHF rallied from 1.0960 to the 1.1790 medium-term objective. Te failure to close above both 1.0110 as well as 1.1790 in December 2017 were the clear indications that the final, last gasp rally in the long-term
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