CURRENCY WATCH U.S. Dollar had taken place.
Te result was both the forecast decline to .9445 in USD/CHF for February as well as decline from 1.1790 in EUR/CHF to the 1.1445 forecast March. We are now forecasting a shallow 3% rally to .9735 through May 2018 in a still broad medium-term consolidation
[.9445 – 1.0040] through June 2018. We continue to forecast the subsequent weak further decline to .9255 into September 2018. As in the last two quarterly outlooks, only a monthly close below .9445 in USD/ CHF (resulting in a decline to .8705) would confirm the commencement of the broader Dollar decline to ensue over the subsequent year.
NOTE: EUR/CHF
FX failed the
1.1790 medium-term objective for November 2017; retest of 1.1445 into March 2018 achieved; broad [1.1340 – 1.1845] through June 2018.
USD/RUB
Aſter the yearlong decline to 55.70 in April 2017 produced strong complex medium-term divergences just shy of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, the sideways 6% consolidation throughout the first quarter of 2018 alleviated most of the divergences. We are now forecasting a retest of 61.10 into May 2018, still within the broad, lackluster, 12% consolidation range [55.25 – 61.80] through August 2018. Only a monthly
close back
above 61.80 would reignite bullish medium-term momentum and begin a 9% rally to 67.45 strong long-term resistance over two months.
USD/RUB GOLD
Te inverse relationship between Gold and the U.S. Dollar is one of the few correlations between asset classes that remains mostly intact during this disjointed global period in the markets. Our long-term bearish outlook for Gold since May 2012 culminated with the decline to the 1044.55 ongoing long-term objective for Gold in December 2015.
GOLD
Te decline now to only 1238 for November 2017 and rally shy of 1374 for March 2018 has further underscored the broad medium-term consolidation view. We are forecasting
FX TRADER MAGAZINE April - June 2018 31
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