FX FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS by Stewart Richardson


Is the US economy performing as well as it seems?


The next couple of quar ters are impor tant for the US economy. When one scratches below the sur face, the US economy is not per forming as well as it should be given all the positives. As the Fed might continue to raise rates perhaps four times this year, we think that concerns over a pol icy error and economic slowdown wi ll gather later in the year.


It feels very much like a big waiting game at the moment. Economically the consensus became very excited about synchronised global growth as 2017 ended, and of course the US tax cuts were supposed to propel


24 FX TRADER MAGAZINE April - June 2018


growth higher. So far Q1 looks a bit pedestrian, and we can quite easily see this continuing into the second half of the year. In financial markets, now that markets have settled down after the volatility washout in February,


price action is “coiling” in a number of markets, indicating indecision. At some point, we will get resolution as markets breakout of recent ranges.


The data on the US economy leaves


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