American Automotive industry has seen strong growth since 2009, and appears to have peaked at an estimated 17.6-17.8 million units. As in previous years, lower fuel costs, the availability of low-cost or free financing and dealer incentives have been instrumental in ensuring another strong year for the industry. US production of light vehicles are expected to remain strong, though relatively flat in 2018, with a decline in passenger car automobiles being offset by growth in light truck, crossover and SUV sales. Some experts anticipate a moderate contraction in 2018, over concerns of rising interest rates and increasing fuel prices. North American foundries have indicated that production is strong and steady. The outlook for 2018 supports analyst projections with foundries indicating that they expect the market to be flat or slightly off. The


ICI estimates General Industrial


Sales of castings serving general industry showed improvement over 2016 levels. Most notably was the performance of the Oil and Gas sector and its collateral effect on supporting and parallel


industries.


This sector has demonstrated a turn around, but casting buyers continue to exhibit caution as they procure castings to meet oil field needs rather than stocking inventory shelves.


Though


some foundries are reporting a 40-50% improvement over 2016, manufacturers do not anticipate casting requirements to show significant growth in future years, but growth is expected. North


2018 North


American production of castings for light vehicles to remain at $0.43 billion.


American foundries are


reporting 2016 Pump & Valve production to be marginally up from 2015 levels due to the collateral effect of Oil & Gas, but not to the same degree as their Oil & Gas counterparts.


This sector has


experienced decline since 2015 levels, and the moderate growth experienced in 2017 is expected to continue into 2018. The Heavy Equipment sector continues to experience decline, with overall sector performance reflecting an estimated 10% decline in 2017. Some experts report that the sector has bottomed, and


®


2018 should show some improvement, especially in the area of class 8 vehicles. Orthopedic investment casting sales continue to realize consistent growth, with production increases estimated at 6-7%. Foundries manufacturing medical devices experienced a similar increase in 2017 production. Food processing equipment maintained their growth rate of 2%, and recreational firearms also saw a decrease in production of approximately 8%. Overall, market growth in advancing offset


subsectors declines in others,


resulting in what the Investment Casting Industry is currently estimating as an approximate 4% growth over 2016 casting sales serving the General Industrial sector in 2017. Further growth of 2 to 3% is anticipated for 2018.


Summation In summary,


Aerospace and select


General Industry subsectors show continued growth through 2018. Industrial Gas Turbine has shown signs of weakening while the Automotive sector remains strong, but relatively flat. Overall, it is estimated that 2017 North American investment casting sales realized approximately 5% growth from 2016 levels, achieving an estimated $5.9 billion. Further growth of 4% is anticipated for 2018, with estimated revenue from casting $6.1 billion.


sales exceeding A more in-depth examination of the


North American market will be presented at the next ICI Spring Management Meeting in Sonoma, CA on April 18, 2018.


January 2018 ❘ 13


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