TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
way below the price – still support the bearish trend.
On the Weekly timeframe, the GBPUSD currency pair was extremely undecided in 2017. It started the year with a clearly bearish picture, but nearly immediately changed it direction, crossed the Kijun-Sen from below in March,
then it was bouncing
between the Kumo bottom and the Kijun-Sen until it flowed into the cloud effortlessly at the end of June. It then spent the entire year in the body of the Kumo bouncing up and down until it performed a weak Kumo breakout on the top of the cloud in December.
On the Daily chart the currency pair had a choppy-bullish year with multiple bullish and several fake bearish Kumo-breakouts that weren’t supported by the Chikou Span confirmation line. The bullish trend wasn’t confident at all and the price retraced back to either the Kijun-Sen or the Kumo bottom several times.
GBPUSD Prospect
The GBPUSD currency pair is in a neutral, mixed position currently. On the Monthly chart, it is still bearish – the price is below the Kumo, below the Kijun-Sen and the Chikou Span is below the price and all other Ichimoku components, but it is above the Tenkan-Sen and moving between the tight channel
formed by the Tenkan and Kijun- Sen lines. Furthermore, it seems – after spending the entire year in a neutral position within the Kumo cloud – the price started to break out at the top of the Kumo on the Weekly chart and this direction is supported by all other Ichimoku lines. At the moment, the price is also bullish on the Daily chart, however – as we’ve seen it multiple times during the year – it’s direction is not strong and can easily bounce back to the nearest support level soon. The main resistance levels are
the Monthly Kijun level support at
around 1.3574 and the bottom of the Monthly Kumo at 1.5564, while the nearest
levels are the
FX
Monthly Tenkan-Sen at 1.3000 and the Weekly Kumo
USDJPY Retrospect
On the Monthly USDJPY chart the price was bouncing between the Kijun-Sen and the Kumo cloud in 2017, just like in 2016, only with less volume. Finally, it entered the Kumo in August and stayed there for the remaining months of the year.
On the Weekly chart the USDJPY currency pair started the year in a false-breakout position, as the Chikou Span hasn’t crossed the Kumo cloud and didn’t confirm
Figure 7: USDJPY Monthly
Figure 8: USDJPY Weekly FX TRADER MAGAZINE January - March 2018 59
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