FX CURRENCY WATCH USD/JPY
terminated further strong medium- term rallies, we have completed the forecast decline to 109.20 for April 2017. We continue to forecast the subsequent retest of 115.75 through February 2018 in the resulting lower, choppy medium-term consolidation [ 108.15 – 116.05] through April 2018. We are forecasting a subsequent decline again in USD/JPY to 108.15 through July 2018, reinforcing the imminent new leg down in the broader Dollar. Only a monthly close still below 108.40 (reigniting bearish medium-term momentum and resulting in a decline to retest 103.90 over two months) or a monthly close above 116.75 (resulting in a strong retest of 123.65 over three months) would alter the waning, neutral/ bullish medium-term outlook.
USD/CHF
below 1.3155 (resulting in a decline to retest 1.2590 over the subsequent three months) or a monthly close back above 1.3990 (resulting in a rally to 1.4565 strong long-term resistance over four months) would alter our broad, neutral medium-term outlook.
NOTE: EUR/GBP - We continue to forecast a retest of .8380, out to
16 FX TRADER MAGAZINE January - March 2018
February 2018 from November 2017, still within [.8210 - .8905] into April 2018.
USD/JPY
As in our previous quarterly article, aſter the rally through 111.45 to 118.65, and subsequent monthly close back below 114.15 in January 2017
NOTE: EUR/JPY monthly close back above 125.90 in July 2017 terminated further long-term declines. We continue to forecast a rally to retest 141.05 through February 2018, still in the sharply higher outlook [127.55 – 141.05] into the second quarter of 2018.
USD/CHF
I am sorry to again state one of my strongest beliefs about the currency market; that the Swiss Franc remains the bellwether, proactive currency. Indicative of the forecast waning bullish long-term momentum in the U.S. Dollar, USD/CHF rallied to 1.0040 in October 2017, just shy of
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