TECHNICAL ANALYSIS


FX


A break of the most recent trend line could also indicate a move lower is to follow.


September and November lows: (Chart 3)


Volatility has also increased in since the trend line put


The CBOE launched trading in bitcoin


futures on 10 December, with nearly 4,000 January futures contracts traded on the first day


with the 10 December low at $12,700.


However, it may now raise


questions of whether this is the new norm for bitcoin’s price trend, or if the market is now in a blow-off move higher.


In terms of what may indicate a move lower, after a break


below the 03 September swing low we saw the market continue lower for several days to put in the 15 September low. The break below the 06 November low was also followed by a move lower to the 12 November low. As such, a move lower, below a recent swing low, could be something to watch for.


in


place off the 30 September low. From 7 to 10 December the daily range exceeded $3,000.


Launch trading


of futures


The CBOE launched trading in bitcoin futures on 10 December, with nearly 4,000 January traded


futures on the first


contracts day.


However, by Thursday of this week the volume in this contract had fallen to just over 1,000 contracts traded on the day. Comparatively, Thursday’s


trade volume


for the December CBOE Volatility Index future was over 140,000.


What this may suggest is a lack of institutional interest in bitcoin. The Cboe and CME bitcoin futures contracts were supposed to


be Chart 4: Ethereum Daily Source: TinkMarkets/Trade Interceptor institutional


an opportunity investors


for to


participate in the market. However, the release was also accompanied by reports that a


FX TRADER MAGAZINE January - March 2018 49


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