CURRENCY WATCH
the 1.0110 objective for November 2017. Simultaneously, the EUR/ CHF rallied from 1.0960 to the 1.1790 medium-term objective. Te failure to penetrate both 1.0110 as well as 1.1790 in December are clear indications of the final, last gasp rally in the long-term U.S. Dollar.
As a result, we are forecasting a
decline from 1.0040 in USD/CHF to retest the .9445 critical monthly close through February. Adding to the bearish outlook for USD/CHF, we are forecasting a decline in EUR/CHF from 1.1790 very strong long-term resistance to 1.1445 into March 2018, underscoring the change in direction of the Dollar through a strengthening CHF. Te result is a similar, broad
FX
medium-term consolidation [.9445 – 1.0040] through April 2018. Only a monthly close below .9445 in USD/ CHF (resulting in a decline to .8705) would confirm the commencement of the broader Dollar decline to ensue over the subsequent year.
NOTE: EUR/CHF failed the 1.1790 medium-term objective for November 2017; retest 1.1445 into March 2018 within a tighter outlook [1.1140 – 1.1790] into June 2018.
USD/RUB USD/RUB
AAſter the yearlong decline to 55.70 in April 2017 produced strong complex medium-term divergences just shy of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, the sideways 6% consolidation instead of the forecast 10% rally in the U.S. Dollar [10% decline in the Russian Ruble] to 63.90 through December 2017 alleviated most of the divergent technicals and terminated the rally. We are now forecasting a broad, lackluster, 12% consolidation range [55.25 – 61.80] through June 2018. Only a monthly close back above 61.80 would reignite bullish medium- term momentum and begin a 9% rally to 67.45 strong long-term resistance over two months.
GOLD GOLD
Te inverse relationship between Gold and the U.S. Dollar is one of the few correlations between asset classes
that
remains mostly intact FX TRADER MAGAZINE January - March 2018 17
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