Page 6. MAINE COASTAL NEWS July 2017 Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute News
Finding New Homes Won’t Help Emperor Penguins Cope with Climate Change If projections for melting Antarctic sea
ice through 2100 are correct, the vanishing landscape will strip Emperor penguins of their breeding and feeding grounds and put populations at risk. But like other species that migrate to escape the wrath of climate change, can these iconic animals be spared simply by moving to new locations? According to new research led by the
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), they cannot. Scientists report that dispersal may help sustain global Emperor penguin populations for a limited time, but, as sea ice conditions continue to deteriorate, the 54 colonies that exist today will face dev- astating declines by the end of this century. They say the Emperor penguin should be listed as an endangered species. The study
was published in the June 6, 2017 edition of the journal Biological Conservation. “We know from previous studies that
sea ice is a key environmental driver of the life history of Emperor penguins, and that the fi fty-percent declines we’ve seen in Pointe Géologie populations along the Antarctic coast since the 1950s coincide with warmer climate and sea ice decline,” said Stephanie Jenouvrier, WHOI biologist and lead author of the study. “But what we haven’t known is whether or not dispersal could prevent or even reverse future global populations. Based on this study, we con- clude that the prospects look grim at the end of 2100, with a projected global population decline as low as 40 percent and up to 99 percent over three generations. Given this outlook, we argue that the Emperor penguin is deserving of protection under the Endan-
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gered Species Act.” The relationship between Emperor pen-
guins and sea ice is a fragile one: Too little sea ice reduces the availability of breeding sites and prey; too much sea ice means lon- ger hunting trips for adults, which in turn means lower feeding rates for chicks. Only in the past few years have scientists become aware of the penguins’ ability to migrate to locations with potentially more optimal sea ice conditions. “Before 2014, our studies of the impacts
of climate change on these animals hadn’t factored in movement among populations,” said Jenouvrier. “But between then and now, a number of satellite imagery studies and genetic studies have confi rmed their ability to disperse, so this was an important new variable to work into the equation.” To determine whether migration will
ultimately help Emperor penguins defend against population decline, Jenouvrier worked with mathematicians to develop a sophisticated demographic model of penguin colonies based on data collected at Pointe Géologie, one of the few places where long-term Emperor penguin studies have been conducted. The model tracks the population con-
nectivity between penguins as they take their chances moving to new habitats off ering better sea ice conditions. “It’s like we’ve added roads between the cities the penguins live in and now get to see what happens when they travel between them,” she said. A range of model inputs were used,
including penguin dispersal distance, be- havior and rate of migration. The model also factors in end-of-century sea ice forecasts from climate projection models to predict the fate of each colony. According to Shaye Wolf, climate sci-
ence director for the Center for Biological Diversity, the new modeling technique is key to informing policy around “much-needed protections” for the Emperor penguin. “Dr. Jenouvrier’s research has been at
the forefront of advancing our understand- ing of how climate change is impacting these animals now and into the future,” she
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said. “Emperor penguins capture our imag- inations because they are devoted parents and tough survivors. This work is another wake-up call that we need to make rapid cuts in carbon pollution if emperor penguins are going to have a future.” One surprising aspect of the study, ac-
cording to Jenouvrier, was the wide range of penguin responses to various dispersal scenarios represented in the model. In some cases, dispersal boosted populations where- as in other cases, it led to dramatic declines. “We saw sustained populations through
2036, at which point there was an ‘ecologi- cal rescue’ that reversed the anticipated de- cline expected without dispersion for about a ten-year period,” she explained. “During that time, the penguins made wise choices in terms of selecting the highest-quality habitat they could reach. But the ‘rescue’ was only short-lived, and started plummeting in 2046. When we averaged out all the scenarios, the model painted a very grim picture through 2100, regardless of how far penguins trav- elled or how wise their habitat selections were.”
The researchers conclude that while
dispersal can be a very potent response to climate change in certain cases, the project- ed accelerated pace at which ice is melting in Antarctica makes for a tricky dynamic. Climate change isn’t stationary, so even if Emperor penguins move to locations with better sea ice conditions, those conditions could change dramatically from one year to the next. The new fi ndings will help inform a
scientifi c status review launched in 2014 by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service aimed at determining if the Emperor Penguin should be protected under the Endangered Species Act. Wolf views the study as confi rmation that climate change is putting the animals in danger, and as such, agrees with Jenouvrier that protection is in order. “Decisions to pro- tect species under the Act must be based on science and not politics, so we hope the Fish and Wildlife Service will heed the science and give Emperor penguins the protections they deserve,” she said.
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