FX MACROECONOMICS by Howard Friend


The ‘Grand Old Party’ and the U.S. dollar


In this article the author analyses the performance of the U.S. dollar during various Republican administrations and identifies common themes which could affect the value of the currency


The storming of the White House by Donald Trump last November created not just the usual ripples on a change in U.S. leadership but many shockwaves both at home and abroad as the world holds its breath waiting for the ‘New Normal’ to emerge.


For those trying to get a handle on what to expect over the next four or more years the early months of the Presidency have been a little


32 FX TRADER MAGAZINE July - September 2017


perplexing to say the least. Differences have emerged between Mr. Trump’s isolationist pre-election rhetoric and some of his actions in the Oval Office, particularly in the field of foreign policy which has seen unilateral action in Syria, strong assurances given to NATO and the ramping up of stakes with North Korea.


Despite all the confusion and contradictions witnessed so far it is


worth pointing out that while in what used to be called ‘the Free World’ the leader of the elected political party holds a very large amount of sway over government policy, he or she will still need a groundswell of support to retain power. Tis involves consensus- building and compromise with the various power brokers within the ruling party which inevitably leads to some dilution of the power of the President relative to the party.


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