TECHNICAL OUTLOOK EUR/USD
As stated in the last two years of articles for FX Trader Magazine, our long-term forecast continued to stress the top in the EUR/USD since 2009 [at 1.4740], as well as the forecast subsequent declines to 1.1555 for March 2014, and 1.0460 for 2016 in the ongoing seven-year Dollar
Bull Market Forecast. Te difference now is that the forecast further decline in the EUR/USD is at risk in our forecast final year of the Dollar Bull Market. I would not be concerned about an extended consolidation and an adjustment
in
timing of this long-term bottom. Terefore, we continue to forecast the
FX
decline to .9890, out to September from June 2017, but no longer the extended further decline to .9330 strong long-term support previously for August 2017. We continue to forecast the subsequent six months’ consolidation [ .9890 – 1.1305] through March 2018 as the long-term bottom continues to build for the Euro. Only a monthly close in EUR/USD still above 1.1305 would terminate the bearish long-term technical aspects of the Euro, complete the bottom for the EUR/USD, and result in a strong retest of 1.2230 in a higher, choppy outlook [1.0880 - 1.2230] over the subsequent twelve months.
GBP/USD EUR/USD
GBP/USD had remained bearish in our long-term outlook for the last two and a half years. Te extremely strong and historic “Brexit Decline” in GBP/USD has produced a premature decline to the 1.3655 ongoing long- term objective for October 2016. In the process of this premature decline, the further strong decline through 1.3655 to 1.1950 developed the strongest complex medium-term divergences in a year.
GBP/USD
Whereas the Euro continues to complete the bottom, the bottom for GBP/USD is completed. We continue to forecast a weak rally from 1.1950 to 1.3180 weak medium- term resistance, down sharply from 1.3795, through July 2017 in the forecast subsequent, broad, and volatile, neutral/ bullish outlook. We continue to forecast the subsequent consolidation into January 2018 [1.1950 – 1.3445]. Only a monthly close back below 1.1950 (reigniting bearish medium-term momentum, avert the further rally to 1.3180, and result in a deeper decline to 1.1220 weak long-term support over the subsequent three months)
FX TRADER MAGAZINE July - September 2017 21
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