TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
in EUR/CHF will continue to constrain USD/CHF and produce significant medium-term divergences through June 2017. We are focused on a weekly close in EUR/CHF below 1.0625 to commence the forecast decline to 1.0235 and maintain our complex CHF outlook. At the time of writing this article, EURCHF is trading at approximately 1.0925, the
opposing critical monthly close. Only a monthly close above 1.0925 would terminate the forecast decline to 1.0235 and result in a rally to 112.05 very strong long-term resistance over a month in a subsequent higher volatile medium-term consolidation [1.0625 – 112.05]. NOTE: In our big picture, the struggle of USD/CHF and resulting medium-term
FX
divergences [as the EUR/USD completes its seven-year cyclical decline at .9890] is also a strong indication of the waning long-term bull market in the Dollar that we continue to believe culminates through the third quarter of 2017.
USD/RUB
It has been a year and a half since I last forecast the USD/RUB in FX Trader Magazine. Te decline from the 85.95 high in January 2016 to the 62.60 February 2016 medium-term corrective objective mixed medium-term technicals back to neutral, but the subsequent yearlong decline to 55.70 this April produced strong complex medium-term divergences just shy of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. We are forecasting a 10% rally in the U.S. Dollar [10% decline in the Russian Ruble] through September 2017 to alleviate the medium-term divergences, volatile medium-term
then a consolidation USD/RUB
[55.90 – 67.45] through January 2018. Only a monthly close back below 53.45 would reignite bearish medium-term momentum and begin a 9% decline to 48.70 strong long-term support over two months.
GOLD
Te inverse relationship between Gold and the U.S. Dollar is one of the few correlations that remain mostly intact during this disjointed global environment. Our long-term bearish outlook for Gold since May 2012 culminated with the decline to the 1044.55 ongoing long- term objective for Gold in December 2015. Te strong rally through the 1155 medium-term corrective objective for February
2016 GOLD to 1377 again eroded the improved medium-term FX TRADER MAGAZINE July - September 2017 23
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