FX TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
to forecast the subsequent retest of 115.75 through August 2017 in the resulting lower, choppy medium-term consolidation [ 108.15 – 116.05] into January 2018. Only a monthly close back below 108.40 (reigniting bearish medium-term momentum and resulting in a decline to retest 103.90 over two months) or a monthly close above 116.75 (resulting in a strong retest of 123.65 over three months) would alter the neutral medium-term outlook.
USD/CHF USD/JPY
I am sorry to again state one of my strongest beliefs about the currency market; that the Swiss Franc remains the bellwether, proactive currency. Te continuation through the first quarter consolidation and cross rate rotation combine in this currency. Every time the USD/CHF appeared to break out to the upside, EUR/CHF would decline, thus dampening any bullish momentum back to neutral. Each time the USD/CHF would break out to the downside, EUR/ CHF would rally to its high and again neutralize any bearish momentum in USD/CHF. As a result, the USD/CHF remained only neutral/bullish.
USD/CHF
or a monthly close back above 1.3480 (resulting in a retest of 1.4210 strong medium-term resistance) would alter our broad, neutral medium-term outlook. NOTE: EURGBP decline to the .7070 long-term objective for January 2016 complete; we still forecast a decline again to .8210, up from .7810, through September 2017 in [.8210 - .8905] into January 2018.
22 FX TRADER MAGAZINE July - September 2017 USD/JPY
Aſter the rally through 111.45 [forecast for January 2017] to 118.65, the subsequent monthly close back below 114.15 in January 2017 terminated further strong medium-term rallies. We have completed the forecast decline to 109.20 for April 2017, and we continue
In the fourth quarter, though, we resumed the USD/CHF rally toward our 1.0440 January 2017 objective. As we tested 1.0340 about 1% from the objective, EUR/CHF again declined toward the 1.0625 medium-term pivot point and dampened the bullish medium-term techs in USD/CHF. We continue to forecast the rally to 1.0440, out to September 2017 from June 2017, but also continue to forecast the decline in EUR/CHF to 1.0235, out to June 2017 from January 2017. Tis 4% decline
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