In-depth | CHINA SHIP NEWS
No.
Total 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10
Month
January 2011 February 2011 March 2011 April 2011 May 2011 June 2011 July 2011
August 2011
Export value
773352.2 79413.2 44470.8 119031.4 65673.4 82027.5 66571.9 99575.0 47204.1
September 2011 100448.3 October 2011
68936.6
% of total export value
100
10.27 5.75
15.39 8.49
10.61 8.61
12.88 6.1
12.99 8.91
Year-on-year change
-11.82 -11.22 -52.19 55.19 -0.84 -30.6
-31.71 -12.13 -31.54 31.83 -11.04
Table 2: Statistics of ship product exports from China to the EU in January – October 2011 (Unit: US$0,000)
boosting exports to developing countries, especially to new economies. Looking forward, it will be difficult to
China, similar to other emerging
economies, has been relying on exports to develop its economy in the past 30 years, producing cheap and high-quality necessities for the developed world, and turned itself into a world factory that is using enormous amounts of resources. In recent years, the volume processing
trade has made up more than 90% on average of China’s ship product exports. At present, China is losing its competitive advantage because of rising costs. The unchanging mode of processing
trade has narrowed the profit margin of exports and limited the upgrading of product structures. Te demand for China’s exports has been rapidly shrinking and export growth has been falling quickly as the economies of the US and Europe have remained weak. Exports as a growth driver are losing their edge in China. In 2012, China’s macroeconomic policy
has shown “steady development”. Te GDP growth is expected to be maintained at 8.5%, lower than that in 2009, a year that was affected the most by the international financial crisis. Inflation is expected to ease. Hit by the
Euro crisis, China’s ship and ship accessories exports are expected to fall sharply again, the only way to develop steadily is to expand internal demand. Furthermore, Europe and the US are
the major trade partners of China, the continuous appreciation of the Yuan will weaken the competitiveness of Chinese products in the international market, and harm China’s ship and ship accessories exports in the future.
36 The outlook for the global shipping
market is not optimistic. As the global economic slowdown may become a long-term phenomenon, external demand shrinks, the development of sectors that rely on exports, including China’s shipbuilding industry, will be affected significantly. In the international shipping market,
European shipowners are mostly observing and waiting at this stage. However, they have also shown interest in new ship models that can fulfil new international standards on energy saving, emissions reduction, low fuel consumption, environmental friendliness and new energy for the renewal of their fleets. While shipowners solicited and negotiated in the international ship markets, including China, they continued to suppress pricing. However, as the European banks are busy with their own problems, it has become difficult for shipowners to get financing, and difficult to strike new ship agreements. Although, the Euro crisis has damaged
China’s ship product exports to Europe, Europe is still a major market for China. While expanding in other markets, China must still keep an eye on the development of the European market. In 2012, the healthy growth of China’s
economy will rely on the stability of imports and exports. Tere will not be fundamental change to the demand from the US and Europe in 2012 and the pressure of rising production costs are likely to continue. The situation for China ship and
ship accessories exports is challenging. Further expansion in overseas markets will be a major strategy to stabilise exports. Te focus in 2012 will be on
change the internal and external factors affecting China’s ship products exports. Te outlook of the developed economies is gloomy and the international shipping market is expected to remain weak for a longer period of time. Te export of ship products is expected to shrink further. Weak overseas demand is expected to negatively affect the survival of export enterprises. Regarding the product structure, bulkships,
oil tankers and containerships are the three major ship types among China’s ship and ship accessories exports. In the first 11 months in 2011, the export value of the three ship types amounted to US$29.765 billion, making up 74.9% of the total value. Te value of bulk ship exports amounted to US$22.065 billion, occupying 55.5% of the total. It is estimated that China’s ship export
volumes will drop sharply in 2012. Te product structure with bulk vessels, tankers and boxships being the major three will continue. The proportion of high-technology and high value-added products – such as large container vessels, ultra large crude carriers, offshore vessels and marine diesel engines etc. – as well as ship accessories and offshore equipment in China’s ship product exports will increase gradually. In terms of market structure, Asia and
Europe will still be the major markets for China’s ship product exports in 2012. Exports to the Asian market will continue to grow. However, a larger fall is expected to be seen in ship product exports to Europe – the second largest market for China – due to a higher base in 2011 and the continuous impact of the Euro crisis. NA
* Zhang Shou Chun is employed at the China Chamber of Commerce for Import & Export of Machinery & Electronic Products, Ship division
Zhang Su Ping works at the Technology Research and Economy Development Institute, CSSC
The Naval Architect September 2012
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