AGRICULTURE
in yields (global wheat yields rose by an average 3.3%CAGR in the decade following the green revolution, vs 2.6% in the decade prior) and a 20-year period of sustained low agricultural prices. With global demand surging
again, and an 8-year trend of steadily rising real prices (interrupted only briefly by the global financial crisis), we may be entering a period during which a global refocus on agricultural production is at hand. Indeed, there is significant room
Only a renewed focus on agricultural productivity has the potential to ease agricultural prices more broadly
for improvement, particularly within the emerging markets. Despite being the second largest corn producer in the world, Chinese yields are barely half those seen in the US. Similarly, Russia lags the US in wheat yields by nearly 1 MT/ha. Only a renewed focus on agricultural productivity has the potential to ease agricultural prices more broadly as we move
through the decade. • Copyright © by Morgan Stanley 2011, all rights reserved.
Hussein Allidina is Head of Global Commodity Research & Bennett Meier Senior Commodities Analyst at Morgan Stanley. E:
Hussein.Allidina@
morganstanley.com
These materials are not a research report. The information and opinions in these materials were prepared by the employees of Morgan Stanley & Co.
LLC, including the Morgan Stanley Research Department, and its affiliates (collectively “Morgan Stanley”). These materials are solely for informational and discussion purposes. Morgan Stanley does not undertake to update these materials and the conclusions discussed may change without notice.
Morgan Stanley shall not in any way be liable for claims relating to these materials and makes no express or implied representations or warranties as to their accuracy or completeness or for statements or errors contained in, or omissions from, them. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This material is not a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any security, commodity or other financial instrument or to participate in any investment strategy. The trademarks and service marks contained herein are the property of their respective owners.
Copyright © by Morgan Stanley 2011, all rights reserved.
www.MorganStanley.com
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