OIL MARKETS
Figure 7: Differential Between Oil Demand Growth & GDP ... For 2006-2009 Was a Significant Outlier
1% 2% 3% 4% 5%
-5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0
1986 YoY Growth Rate GDP - YoY Demand - YoY
Growth Will Push Prices Higher The magnitude and speed by which
OECD demand plummeted between 2007 and 2009 was significant and surprising. Demand has not rebounded despite a modest improvement in growth. As such, we doubt a further material OECD decline is on the cards, barring a collapse in economic activity, which is not our base case. If we are right, and EM growth
Median Growth Differential Oil Demand Growth Less GDP
1990 1995 2000 Sources: IMF, IEA, Morgan Stanley Commodity Research
Hussein Allidina is Head of Global Commodity Research, Morgan Stanley Research in New York. E:
Hussein.Allidina@
morganstanley.com
These materials are not a research report. The information and opinions in these materials were prepared by the employees of Morgan Stanley & Co.
LLC, including the Morgan Stanley Research Department, and its affiliates (collectively “Morgan Stanley”). These materials are solely for informational and discussion purposes. Morgan Stanley does not undertake to update these materials and the conclusions discussed may change without notice.
Morgan Stanley shall not in any way be liable for claims relating to these materials and makes no express or implied representations or warranties as to their accuracy or completeness or for statements or errors contained in, or omissions from, them. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This material is not a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any security, commodity or other financial instrument or to participate in any investment strategy. The trademarks and service marks contained herein are the property of their respective owners.
2006 2010
remains reasonably firm, global oil demand will continue to grow, beckoning a higher price, given supply constraints. •
www.MorganStanley.com Copyright © by Morgan Stanley 2011, all rights reserved.
Subscribe to Commodities ... Now ! Please sign me up for:
1 year (£120) Name: Position: 2 Years (£190)
PAYMENT DETAILS (please specify) I enclose a cheque payable to Isherwood Production
Please charge £ ............... to my:
........................................................ MASTERCARD VISA AMEX MAESTRO JCB ........................................................
Company: ........................................................ Address
........................................................ ........................................................................... ........................................................................... Tel:
CARD NUMBER ............................................................. Email: .............................................................
*ISSUE NO: ............ EXPIRY DATE: .................. 3 DIGIT SECURITY CODE:
Signature: ...............................................................
MAIL TO: Isherwood Production, 19 Henning Street, London, SW11 3DR. United Kingdom Commodities Now is produced quarterly in March, June, September & December.
Subscribers ALSO have full access to the Commodities Now website and archived editions of the magazine.
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45 |
Page 46 |
Page 47 |
Page 48 |
Page 49 |
Page 50 |
Page 51 |
Page 52 |
Page 53 |
Page 54 |
Page 55 |
Page 56 |
Page 57 |
Page 58 |
Page 59 |
Page 60 |
Page 61 |
Page 62 |
Page 63 |
Page 64 |
Page 65 |
Page 66 |
Page 67 |
Page 68 |
Page 69 |
Page 70 |
Page 71 |
Page 72 |
Page 73 |
Page 74 |
Page 75 |
Page 76 |
Page 77 |
Page 78 |
Page 79 |
Page 80 |
Page 81 |
Page 82 |
Page 83 |
Page 84 |
Page 85 |
Page 86 |
Page 87 |
Page 88 |
Page 89 |
Page 90 |
Page 91 |
Page 92 |
Page 93 |
Page 94 |
Page 95 |
Page 96