FRIDAY, DECEMBER 17, 2010 CHARLESKRAUTHAMMER
The new Comeback Kid I
f Barack Obama wins reelec- tion in 2012, as is now more likely than not, historians
will mark his comeback as be- ginning on Dec. 6, the day of the Great Tax Cut Deal of 2010. Obama had a bad November. Self-confessedly shellacked in the midterm election, he fled the scene to Asia and various unsuccessful meetings, only to return to a sad-sack lame-duck Congress with ghostly dozens of defeated Democrats wandering the halls. Now, with his stunning tax
deal,Obamais back.Holding no high cards, he nonetheless man- aged to resurface suddenly not just as a player but as orchestra- tor, dealmaker and central actor in a high $1 trillion drama. Compare this with Bill Clin-
ton, greatest of all comeback kids, who, at a news conference a full five months after his shel- lacking in 1994, was reduced to plaintively protesting that “the president is relevant here.” He had been so humiliatingly side- lined that he did not really recover until late 1995 when he outmaneuvered Newt Gingrich in the government-shutdown showdown. And that was Clinton re- sponding nimbly to political op- portunity. Obama fashioned out of thin air his return to rele- vance, an even more impressive achievement. Remember the question after
Election Day: Can Obama move to the center to win back the independents who had aban- doned the party in November? And if so, how long would it take? Answer: Five weeks. An indoor record, although an as- terisk should denote that he had help—Republicans clearing his path and sprinkling it with rose petals.
Obama’s repositioning to the
center was first symbolized by his joint appearance with Clin- ton, the quintessential centrist Democrat, and followed days later by the overwhelming 81 to 19 Senate majority that support- ed the tax deal. That bipartisan margin will go a long way to- ward erasing the partisan stig- ma of Obama’s first two years, marked by Stimulus I, which passed without a single House Republican, and a health-care bill that garnerednocongressio- nal Republicans at all. Despite this, some on the
right are gloating that Obama had been maneuvered into for- feiting his liberal base. Non- sense. He will never lose his base.Wheredotheygo? Liberals will never have a president as ideologically kindred — and
theyknowit.For the left,Obama is as good as it gets in a country that is barely 20 percent liberal. The conservative gloaters
were simply fooled again by the flapping and squawking that liberals ritually engage in before folding at Obama’s feet. House liberals did it with Obamacare; they did it with the tax deal. Their boisterous protests are reminiscent of the floor demon- strations we used to see at party
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conventions when the losing candidate’s partisans would dance and shout in the aisles for a while before settling down to eventually nominate the other guy by acclamation. And Obama pulled this off at
his lowest political ebb. After the shambles of the election and with no bargaining power—the Republicans could have gotten everything they wanted on the Bush tax cuts retroactively in January without fear of an Obama veto — he walks away with what even Paul Ryan ad- mits was $313 billion in super- fluous spending. Including a $6 billion subsidy
for ethanol. Why, just a few weeks ago Al Gore, the Earth King, finally confessed that eth- anol subsidies were a mistake. There is not a single economic or environmental rationale left for this boondoggle that has induced American farmers to dedicate an amazing 40 percent of the U.S. corn crop — for burning! And the Republicans have just revived it. Even as they were near unani- mously voting for this mon-
Curing our Alzheimer’s epidemic
BY SANDRADAYO’CONNOR ANDMARIASHRIVER
E ANDREA BRUCE/VII NETWORK/FTWP
U.S. soldiers from the 101st Airborne Division patrol the mountains of Afghanistan’s Pech Valley last month.
DAVIDIGNATIUS
Progress in Afghanistan, with caveats
V zhari, afghanistan
isiting areas that until recently were Taliban strongholds, you can see the gains that President Obama described
Thursday — and also why they remain, in his words, “fragile and reversible.” Here’s what progress looks like for Casey
Johnson, a civilian aid worker in the district where insurgent leader Mohammad Omar once led amosque. Now that Taliban fighters have been cleared, Johnson can go “outside the wire” to the district council office and listen to residents’ grievances and requests about such matters as land disputes. He can help Afghan officials organize a district “shura,” or local council, that perhaps can solve problems. And here’s the fragility: The Afghans don’t
SAUL LOEB/AFP/GETTY IMAGES
President Obama talks about the tax deal last week.
strosity, Republicans began righteously protesting $8.3 bil- lion of earmarks inHarry Reid’s omnibus spending bill. They seem not to understand how ridiculous this looks after hav- ing agreed to a Stimulus II that even by their own generous reckoning has 38 times as much spending as all these earmarks combined. The greatest mistake Ronald
Reagan’s opponents ever made — and they made it over and over again — was to underesti- mate him. Same with Obama. The difference is that Reagan was so deeply self-assured that he invited underestimation — low expectations are a priceless political asset — whereas Obama’s vanity makes him al- ways needing to appear the smartest guy in the room.Hence that display of prickliness in his disastrous post-deal news con- ference last week. But don’t be fooled by defen-
sive style or thin-skinned tem- perament. The president is a very smart man. How smart? His comeback is already a year ahead of Clinton’s.
letters@charleskrauthammer.com
THE PLUM LINE
Excerpts fromGreg Sargent’s blog on domestic politics and debate on theHill:
voices.washingtonpost.com/plum-line
Finally fixing the filibuster?
advocate of reform, predicting that SenateDemocratswill take action at the start of the next session. The key thing about what’s
For the first time, the push to
change the filibuster is taking on the feel of a real movement — one with institutional sup- port on the left and a growing power base within the Senate itself. In recent years, calls to re-
form the filibuster were mostly confined to bloggers and a handful of cranky, wild-haired senators on the margins. But the growing number of propos- als include measures that seem strikingly thought-out — such as a requirement that senators actually stand on the floor and speak during their filibuster and a change in the number of votes needed to break filibus- ters. And some major voices on the left are calling on the Senate Democratic leadership to take direct action at the start of next year. In another step forward, a
loose coalition of left-leaning groups called FixTheSenate-
Now.org has posted a video that dramatizes — in a lighthearted way — how the Senate is “bro- ken” for everyone except special interests and individual sena- tors who enjoy enormous pow- er under the current system. This follows a big speech by Sen. Tom Harkin, a leading
happening is that groups push- ing to reform the filibuster are laying down a clear roadmap to action and setting their sights on clearly defined common- sense reforms that seem emi- nently achievable if enough po- litical will is gathered. For in- stance, a collection of lefty groups and powerful labor unions including the AFL-CIO and SEIU recently spelled out a statement of core principles that would form the bedrock of reform. The underlying ideas here
are twofold: First, there is Sen. Tom Udall’s insight that each Congress has the power under the Constitution to set its own rules. Second, Sen. JeffMerkley, one of a new crop of younger, reform-minded lawmakers, is getting tractionwith a proposal of simple, achievable reforms to encourage asmuch open debate as possible, mainly by forcing senators to actually filibuster. Anyone even casually famil-
iarwith Senateworkings knows that the best-intentioned ideas can — and often do — quietly disappear, for reasons that no one can explain.But it’s notable that a real movement seems to be taking shape to prevent that fromhappening this time.
trust theAmericansor theAfghangovernment yet. They supported the Taliban for years because it provided a kind of rough justice and security, and they don’t know if the newpower structure will last. They fear the return of Taliban fighters who just a few days ago detonated a massive bomb nearby that killed sixU.S. soldiers. “People are waiting, they’re on the fence,”
says Johnson. “Their question is, ‘Will you still be here next spring and summer when the Taliban come back?’ ” Zhari lies to the west of Kandahar, in what’s probably the decisive battleground of the war. It was cleared by Canadian troops in 2006, but the Taliban came back strong — which ex- plains why residents are skeptical about the newAmerican surge. The Afghan government presence has been
corrupt or
nonexistent.As a State Department official here puts it, Zhari has “broken politics” — a description that sadly fits most of the country under the presidency of Hamid Karzai. Local farmers think about change in very practical terms, he says. “Do people go to Taliban courts for justice or do they come to government courts? Do they trust the police for security or the Taliban?” Even a few months ago, many experts
doubted that better governance was possible here. The local power brokers, such as Kanda- har kingpin Ahmed Wali Karzai, the presi- dent’s half-brother, were corrupt and incom- petent. Reform may still be mission impossi- ble, but with the Taliban on the run, some Zhari residents have decided to give it a try. Last week, protesters armed with picks and
EUGENEROBINSON A war’s cycle to nowhere T
he good news is that President Obama’s strategy inAfghanistanis “ontrack.”Thebad news is that the track runs in a circle.
There have been “notable operational gains” in
the fight against al-Qaeda and the Taliban, accord- ing to a National Security Council-led assessment releasedThursday, but thisprogress is “fragile and reversible.” This sounds like a bureaucraticway of admittingthatwe take twosteps forward, followed by two steps back. Indeed, the reviewacknowledg- es that after nine years of war, “Pakistan and Afghanistan continue to be the operational base for the group that attacked us on 9/11.” What’s not reversible is the human toll of
Obama’sdecisiontoescalate
thewar.Thishasbeen by far the deadliest year forU.S. forces in Afghani- stan,with 489 killed. It has also been a brutal year for Afghan and Pakistani civilians caught in the middle ofwhat increasingly looks like a classicwar of attrition — except with missile-firing robot aircraft circling overhead. Similarly irreversible is the enormous cost of
the war — about $120 billion a year — at a time when the federal government is running a tril- lion-dollar deficit andmunicipalities are so broke that police officers, firefighters and teachers are being laid off. And where are we, progress-wise? Further
along, but not in any direction that makes sense. There are basically two distinctwars being fought in Afghanistan, and in both of them we’re being thwarted by our friends, not our foes. Inthe easternpart of the country,U.S. andallied
forces are trying towipe out Taliban and al-Qaeda militants who terrorize the local population and take advantage of the steep, forbidding, almost impassible terrain. But when enemy fighters are under severe pressure, they just slip across the border into Pakistan,where officials allowthemto remain in safety. A summary of theWhiteHousewar assessment
notes that eliminating “extremist safe havens” is essential. It notes that Pakistan — ostensibly, our ally — has done much, but clearly not enough, to deny sanctuary to the enemy.But thenthe summa- ry retreats into mushy language about how we’d like to see “greater cooperation,” how we need not just military action but “effective development strategies,” and how “another session of the
U.S.-Afghanistan-PakistanTrilateraldialogue”will surely help. “We will continue to insist,” Obama said Thurs-
day, “that terrorist safe havens . . . must be dealt with.” But the truth is thatwe are unable to get the Pakistanis to do more and we’d cause a political crisis ifwe did the job ourselves. So the enemywill continue to have a cozy place to hide. The otherwar is in the south,whereGen.David
Petraeus is trying to implement a counterinsur- gency strategy, which requires winning the trust and allegiance of the population. There, it’s our Afghan allieswho block the path toward success. PresidentHamid Karzai’s government iswidely
seen as pervasively corrupt. It is axiomatic that a counterinsurgency campaign can work only if the local government is seen as legitimate, effective and at least reasonably honest.Otherwise, a given townwill stay “pacified” only as long asU.S. troops are present. When the soldiers leave — and the enemy comes calling — townspeople are unlikely to put their lives on the line for an unworthy regime. “We are on track to achieve our goals,” Obama
insisted. But if this were true, you’d think that Afghans would be increasingly optimistic. In fact, Afghans are becoming gloomier about their coun- try and less confident about the ability of U.S. forces to provide security, according to a recent Post poll and several other news organizations. A year ago, 61 percent of Afghans supported
Obama’s troop surge; now, only 49 percent ap- prove of the escalation. Nearly three-fourths of Afghans believe the government should negotiate apeace settlementwiththeTaliban,andmore than half believe U.S. and allied troops should begin to leave bymid-2011, asObama has promised. It’s clear that any withdrawal beginning next
summerwill bemodest.But assuming thatObama does follow through, the
U.S.military presence in Afghanistan is now at its zenith — about 100,000 troops. Is it reasonable to thinkwe’ll do any better with, say, 90,000 troops?Or 80,000? No, it’s not. But more young Americans will be
killed by roadside bombs, more Afghan and Paki- stani civilianswillbeblowntobitsbymissiles fired from drones, and our war policy will remain “on track”—to nowhere.
eugenerobinson@washpost.com
shovels demanded the removal of a corrupt police officialwhowas running acampfor war refugees north of town.He’s outnow. About 70 farmers attended a training session at a new government agriculture center and went home with gift bags of farming gear. The best news is that about 80 people
showed upMonday for the first meeting of the shura despite the assassination last week of one of the organizers. Will people keep coming back for more meetings despite the intimida- tion? That will be the measure of future progress. Visiting with American soldiers hereThurs-
day, Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, cautioned that success “isn’t going to happen overnight.” But the fact that he can even visit a base that a fewmonths ago was under regular mortar fire tells you that something has changed. The awkward balance — of better security
but governance structures that may be fatally weak — was evident in Marja, a district in Helmand province that has been a case study of the difficulties of the Afghanistan war. The area was cleared last February
byU.S.Marines with much fanfare and talk about installing “government in a box.” Ten months later, security is finally getting better, but there’s still more box than government. Violence is down. Butmany positions in the
district government are empty. And the Af- ghan army, which is supposed to take over fromU.S. forces, is still shaky, operating at only about half its authorized strength. The prob- lem is structural: Afghan battalion command- ers pay superiors to get their posts and then are paid for authorized troop levels. They hire fewer soldiers and pocket the difference. That’s unfortunately a model of how much of Afghanistan works. The power brokers profit from underperformance. “Our [local] governor needs a complete
staff,” says Lt. Col. James Fullwood, who commands theMarines in the area surround- ingMarja. President Obama says that the measure of
success in Afghanistan is that he can stick to his schedule and begin withdrawing U.S. troops and transferring responsibility to the Afghans next July. That part still sounds like wishful thinking, given the mixed picture. There’s progress, but as the president rightly said, it’s still very frail.
davidignatius@washpost.com
very American president must take on a defining challenge to mobilize theAmerican spirit and advance the
American story. The too-brief presidency of John F. Kennedy is remembered for a commitment to land a man on the moon within a decade. And this we did. Ronald Reagan declared that a resolute America would“transcend”communism.Less than ayearafterheleftoffice, theBerlinWall fell without a shot being fired. Alzheimer’s disease is our generation’s
defining challenge. It is quickly becom- ing one of the greatest public and finan- cial health issues of our time. The House’s passage Wednesday of the Na- tional Alzheimer’s Project Act sends this critical legislation to the White House for President Obama’s signature. Pas- sagewasa first step toward development of a strategic national plan to fight this disease. Let us set before the nation the goal of
defeating Alzheimer’s within the next de- cade. Much as President Kennedy launched
an expedition to the moon, why can’t we launch an expedition to the brain — the last frontier of biomedical research — to discover the cures for Alzheimer’s and so many other neurological diseases that af- fectmillions ofAmericanfamilies? Our nation is locked in an energy-sap-
ping debate over its fiscal future. Among our many challenges are the interlinked medical and fiscal threats of aging and illness. The health-care costs of older Americans are themost significant driver of government spending, and the chronic diseasesof thoseusingMedicareandMed- icaid are sapping patients’ families finan- cially andemotionally. The time has come to turn from parti-
sanshipanddespairaboutour fiscal future and recall once more the power of a visionary goal tomobilize American inge- nuity andinnovation—andlift theAmeri- canspirit. Alzheimer’s must be considered a full-
blown epidemic: It is killing some 5.3 million Americans now and challenges more than 11 million caregivers annually, themajority ofwhomarewomen increas- inglydrawnoutof theworkforcetocarefor a relative even as they care for their
children.More than half of all Americans knowsomeonewiththedisease,according to polling data done by the ShriverReport andUSAgainstAlzheimer’s. Alzheimer’s isafamilydisease,affecting
the emotional, physical and financial health ofmultiple generations.We under- stand the enormous toll this disease takes on families.One of us had a husbandwho sufferedfromit, andthe otherhas a father who still does. The lion’s share of the costs areborneby families—at toohighaprice. Already Medicaid is spending more than $24 billion annually on care for victims whose families have gone bankrupt trying to cover those costs. On Jan. 1, the baby boomgeneration begins to turn 65 at the rateof10,000peopleperdayforthenext19 years. The number of Alzheimer’s cases will rise rapidly, and the drain on Ameri- can productivity and female caregivers will sapournational strength. Meanwhile, the costs ofAlzheimer’s are
also escalating rapidly. Annual spending on care for those with the disease ismore than $170 billion — and is projected to reach$2 trillionover thenextdecade. Sowhat are the best strategies for deal-
ing with an epidemic? Cure and preven- tion. They are not only themost compas- sionate approaches but also the most fis- cally conservative. Polio was once a raging epidemic, crip-
pling and killing, but we developed a vaccine.We didn’t simply invest in better wheelchairs, leg braces and iron lungs — we invested in innovative medicine. Now our society spends virtually nothing on polio,becausewedon’thaveto; thevaccine haspaidfor itselfmillions of times over. HIV/AIDS raged in the mid-1980s, but
we as a nation rolled up our sleeves, developed a plan, invested in treatments and turned an aggressive killer into a manageable disease. That $10 billion gov- ernment investmentwasconsiderable,but italsosavedthenation$1.4trillionincosts of care. Recently, fiscal experts fromacross the
political spectrum have issued solid and thoughtful reports suggesting ways to re- duce the national deficit and debt. Yet none of these reports, earnest as they mightbe,hasagalvanizingnationalgoalat itsheart. The best way to reduce spending is to
eliminate the diseases that cost this coun- trysomuchtotreat.Onestudyfoundthata medicalbreakthroughagainstAlzheimer’s — even one that merely delays the age of onset by just five years—wouldmean 1.6 million fewer American deaths from the disease and annual savings of $362 billion by 2050. Americans would embrace that com-
mon-sense approach. Unlocking themys- teries of the brain and finding a cure for Alzheimer’sandotherneurologicaldiseas- es would be a win for individual health, deficit reductionandthe economy. So now we need leaders looking to get
ahead of an epidemic headed right for us, leaders with the vision of JFK or Ronald Reagan, leaders ready to take on aworthy quest of their own.
SandraDayO’Connor is a retired associate justice of
theSupremeCourt.MariaShriver is first lady ofCalifornia.
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