ALLIE RENISON
‘Brexit delays don’t mean that all your preparations are wasted’
At the start of 2019, I was asked to make some predictions for the year ahead. Only a fool could confi dently assume anything about the
path to Brexit, yet I at least felt positive in forecasting that some sort of decision would be reached by the year’s end. How wrong I was. One could hardly have anticipated that we would now be into our third extension, as Parliament continues to struggle for consensus. And yet, for all the frustration, it’s worth refl ecting on why this latest delay is perhaps different from the others. This column usually steers clear of politics, but it’s impossible to do that in analysing why the revised Brexit deal that Boris Johnson brought back from Brussels did not succeed immediately – not least because it had clear implications for a number of IoD members operating in, and trading with, Northern Ireland. It was also brought to Parliament with only days to spare before the PM’s 31 October deadline. The previous withdrawal deal between Theresa May’s government and the EU27 contained a contingency provision that both sides wanted to avoid: the “Irish backstop”.
POLICY VOICE
WHAT YOU TOLD US
Members of the IoD’s Policy Voice group (
iod.com/ policyvoice) opine on the economy and foreign talent
56
director.co.uk
Parting shot: as he prepared to step down as president of the European Council in November, Donald Tusk told the UK that the latest Brexit extension ‘may be the last one’
In renegotiating the deal, Johnson replaced the backstop with a binding new arrangement for Northern Ireland. A hard land border with Ireland was avoided, but at the cost of complex new customs rules and hurdles for trade between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. Acute regulatory drift and further internal barriers suddenly seemed a genuine prospect. Big changes to how devolved consent in Northern Ireland would be achieved were also added, creating signifi cant issues for its unionist parties that are beyond the scope of this article. Several business groups in Northern Ireland that had initially welcomed the revised deal grew concerned as its practical ramifi cations became clear. We at the IoD immediately refl ected that its proposed changes necessitated proper scrutiny and that further commitments from the government would be needed to safeguard the UK’s internal market. At the time of writing, these have not been forthcoming, although we’ve fed in a number of ideas. The extension may yet be used for different purposes, but allowing more time to provide for the above was important in
Hiring from abroad
44% 27%
employ non-EU citizens.
of respondents have at least one employee from the EU27.
53%
recruit foreign nationals who are educated to degree level or above.
29%
of respondents who hired staff from outside the EU consider the UK visa system to be slow.
hire foreign nationals with Stem skills.
43%
our view. We know that IoD members were almost evenly split on passing the new deal versus a further extension. But we also know that repeated extensions won’t take a no-deal Brexit off the table. It’s important for politicians to recognise this; a no-deal Brexit will always be a distinct possibility (unless cancelling Brexit altogether). Business leaders should therefore feel assured that the latest extension doesn’t mean that all of their preparations are wasted. Many steps taken don’t need to be duplicated; simply having a good understanding of no-deal processes and appropriate contingency plans will stand their fi rms in good stead, whatever happens. I have travelled the country running workshops and webinars on planning requirements. This content – plus all our guidance at
iod.com/brexit – remains relevant and essential for ensuring that your business is ready for change, no matter when it comes.
Allie Renison is the IoD’s head of Europe and trade policy (@AllieRenison)
ALAMY
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