conomist Bruce Grindy of Grindy Research, who produces economic information for Argentum’s Quarterlies and Forecast Reports, created a set of projections into 2030 for factors that affect senior living. Here are his takeaways: For any long-term economic projections, demograph-
ics are the primary driver. While the economy is currently in shambles due to the coronavirus, long-term demographic trends remain intact. Population is projected to continue rising at a modest modest
pace, and that will drive labor-force growth over the next 10 years. And labor force growth is a key determinant of job growth. The current decade is trending toward the slowest population
growth since the 1940s. While population growth is projected to be modest in the next decade, the population itself will be older and more diverse.
I used 2019 as the baseline for the 2030 projections, so the im-
mediate-term economic crisis caused by the coronavirus—while unprecedented—is not expected to impact the long-term growth projected for the next decade. Health care providers will continue to be the top job creator in
the economy during the next 10 years. The next decade is pro- jected to be the fifth consecutive decade of decelerating growth. This dampened growth will be due largely to slower population growth and changing demographics. Labor force trends are expected to vary significantly by age
group during the next decade, with teen representation declin- ing and more older adults remaining in the workforce beyond the typical retirement age. By 2028, there are projected to be a record high of adults aged 65-and-older in the labor force and the lowest number of teenagers in the labor force since 1963.
U.S. Population Becoming More Diverse by 2030 Distribution of U.S. population by race and ethnicity: 2010 to 2030
2010 63.9% 59.7% 55.8% 2020 2030
13.0% 4.9% 197.3 M White (Non-Hispanic) 40.3 M
Black or African American
15.2 M Asian
50.5 M
Hispanic or Latino
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Argentum 198.6 M 44.7 M White (Non-Hispanic)
Black or African American
16.3%
18.7% 13.4% 6.0% 20.0 M 62.3 M Asian
Hispanic or Latino
198.0 M 49.0 M White (Non-Hispanic)
Black or African American
13.8% 6.9% 24.4 M Asian 74.8 M
Hispanic or Latino
21.1%
MAY/JUNE 2020
ARGENTUM.ORG 19
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