IMPLICATIONS: A VIEW FROM BALOCHISTAN
CLIMATE CHANGE
“The Global Climate Change Study panels have predicted a warming trend in the previous century in the region where Pakistan is located. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has observed an increasing trend in temperature in the Asia ranges from 1-3 degree Celsius.”
change has affected production and quality of fruit. Winters have become shorter. There used to be snowfall in the middle of November, but now it doesn’t come until the end of January. Trees in the region have been dying off on a vast scale. Apple trees in Quetta, Mastung and the northern areas of Balochistan, and date palms in Makran have succumbed to diseases. The province witnessed prolonged drought from 1999 to 2005 and the government has done enough to cope the crisis but there exists no future programme. The Balochistan government has no idea how severely climate change can and will impact the province’s population and economy. It is highly regrettable that our heads of government, ministers and governors have never paid attention to protecting the environment. They do not realize how important it is. The
government allocates less than one percent of its budget to environmental affairs. The Karez system (the Turpan water system or Turfan water system is locally called the Karez water system) has been vanishing slowly. Over a hundred Karez of Quetta and almost 250 of Mastung, have been dried up. Most of the areas in Balochistan were dependent on Karezes but now they are dry. People are installing tube wells, which are against the law and devastating the environment. The groundwater level has receded alarmingly. In the past, water was available at 100 or 200 feet but now it has dropped to beyond 800 feet. According to Wasa, there are now more than 5,000 illegal tube wells. If this situation keeps going for few more years, the capital will completely dry up.
Expression of Climate Change Pakistan is highly diverse physiographic and climate territory. Koppen Geigger classified our land in to 11 climate zones. Temperature can fall as low as -26 degree Celsius in North and can be as high as 52 degrees Celsius in Central arid plains. The mountainous regions of Balochistan receive merely 30mm of annual precipitation.
The Global Climate Change Study panels have predicted a warming trend in the previous century in the region where Pakistan is located. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has observed an increasing trend in temperature in the Asia ranges from 1-3 degree Celsius. In Pakistan, there is an increasing trend in temperature ranges from 0.6-1 degree Celsius. There is also great variation in rainfall trend and at coastal areas, a decreasing trend in annual rainfall by approximately 10-15% annually since 1900. Extreme weather has also been
indicated which can be the cases of frequent floods and drought. Due to extreme in temperature and high water stress the agriculture production of certain crops can decrease.
El Nino phenomenon El Niño is Spanish for ‘the boy child’ because it comes about the time of the celebration of the birth of the Christ Child. The cold counterpart to El Niño is known as La Niña, Spanish for ‘the girl child’, and it also brings with it weather extremes.
The El Nino phenomenon in Pacific Ocean is likely to trigger severe weather conditions. This phenomenon occurs every 3-6 years, dramatically affecting weather conditions worldwide. Increasing frequency of El Nino has affected the rain patterns in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Northern Balochistan, resulting in a temperature drop. The El Nino effects can sometimes be very dry or even very wet. There is no true prediction of future drought or floods. In 1997- 98 El Nino resulted abnormal snowfall followed by country worst and longest drought in Balochistan from 1998-2005. Balochistan has experienced an increased in mean temperature over the period of 1950-2000. In particular, the Balochistan Plateau has experienced a pronounced increase in temperature up to 1.17 degrees Celsius and has predicted that this may mean an increase up to 2.17 degree Celsius during the months of April and May. A careful observation of data in Dalbandin and Quetta shows much increase in temperature in the month of December, January and February.
IPCC predicted that Asia as a whole would increase by 2 to 4 degrees Celsius by 2099. IPCC also prophesied if Himalayan Glaciers continue to melt at the present rate, they are likely to diminish by
2035. Water and agriculture production are highly vulnerable to climate change. In Pakistan, per capital water availability is about 1800 cubic meters per year which will be reduced to 1000 cubic meters annually by 2035. Ground water is depleting rapidly which puts more stress on water availability for drinking as well as for agriculture growth. Floods and drought devastate the soil and cause a reduction in crop production. IPCC predicts a decline in agriculture crops by 30% in south Asia by 2050. Rapid increases in population and a decrease in crop production mean that there is a prediction of a shortage of 7,000 tons of wheat in the country by 2050. It is also predicted that there will be an increase in population of 49 million people by 2020, 132 million by 2050 and 266 million by 2080. Hunger would increase due to shortage of food and increase in population. In the flood of 2010, Balochistan incurred financial losses of Rs. 41988 million whereas indirect financial loss due to less revenue is Rs. 10689 million. 902,639 people were affected during this flood with 48 deaths and 98 injured.
Drought
Due to climate change, there has been an increase in the frequency of droughts. Droughts have a catastrophic impact on agricultural production and food security. The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) reported that climate change will have an impact on three main staple foods: rice, wheat and maize. Pakistan has been experiencing drought in past and the most severely hit province was Balochistan; also the most deprived province in terms of socio-economic indicators. According to the Water Resource Research Institute (WRRI), Balochistan is the drought province of the country
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