CLIMATE CHANGE IMPLICATIONS: A VIEW FROM BALOCHISTAN
includes a reduction in food intake and health care use due to loss in livelihoods, property and employment etc. Similarly, droughts increase food insecurity, malnutrition and lack of safe water thereby giving rise to various infectious diseases. The vulnerability to climate change in general depends upon three factors: 1.
Exposure:
6.4°C over the 21st century. The period from 1995 to 2006 has been the warmest years in the history of earth’s surface. Climate change is predicted to have dire consequences on water, agriculture, livestock, food production, energy, human health and the economy itself that suffers badly. Climate change is a
relatively new area of focus for the prominent organizations like Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC); Pakistan Agricultural Research Council (PARC); Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR); Pakistan Forest Institute; and Pakistan Meteorology Department etc. Apart from these organizations in the public sector, there are a few international development agencies and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) that are involved in environment and climate change research. The most prominent amongst these are International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN); LEAD Pakistan; Oxfam; Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI) and United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP). These all are working in the area of climate change and can assist the government in formulation and adaptation strategies.
The Global Climate Change Impact Study Centre (GCISC) has analysed past trends in temperature and precipitation between 1951 and 2000 in Pakistan by agro-climatic zones and has concluded that some regions such as the Balochistan plateau as well as Central and South Punjab have experienced a warming trend.
The country had experienced devastating drought in 2000, an earthquake in 2005 and a severe flood in 2010. This has resulted in a greater awareness for the policy makers on climate change concerns. Besides these concerns over climate change, we are still lacking in-depth knowledge and the implementation of such policies on ground.
Extreme Weather Events Perhaps the most obvious and devastating consequences of climate change on human health can be observed in the aftermath of extreme weather events such as flooding and droughts. Flooding has a direct impact on human health as it increases the risk of drowning and physical injury in addition to exacerbating water-borne infectious diseases such as Diarrhoea; Malaria; Dengue; Cholera; and Gastroenteritis. The indirect impact of flooding on health
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Exposure depends upon the ecological and geographical characteristics of the region.
2. Sensitivity: Sensitivity depends upon the extent of the reliance of region’s population on natural resource base as sources of their livelihood; the demographic structure; and the current health status of the population.
3. Coping Capacity of the Population: Coping capacity on the other hand depends upon the socio- economic conditions of the population to climate change.
Balochistan is the most vulnerable region with high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity. The major threats posed by climate change in Balochistan include droughts and increase in mean average temperature. Pakistan is an agricultural country and without increasing agricultural production, it would not be able to meet future projected requirement for food for a growing population. The impact of climate change on agriculture, would be negative if climate change is seen in terms of increased temperature and
decreased precipitation rates. A 6% reduction in rainfall leads to 29 % increase in irrigation requirements.
Worsening Influence The poor planning and mismanagement trends in transport in the country have led to the highest levels of vehicular emissions and pollution in the world. The concentration of air pollutant sensitive to climate change are extremely high in Pakistan and even worst in Balochistan.
After the episode of drought ended in the year 2004-05 with the start of heavy rains, abnormal weather conditions have been observed in Balochistan such as out of season rainfall and a rise in temperatures over the past five to six years. Although there are no major industrial or metropolitan regions in Balochistan, still the impact of climate change is visible in the province.
In the summer, the
temperature in Quetta rose to 44 degrees Celsius. This was unheard in past decades. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) reported that sudden violent rainfall is being observed in the province which is not useful and more likely harmful. There used to be three or four spells of showers during the monsoon season. For the past several years, there has been no snow at all in the Quetta city, though the mountains surrounding it do receive light snow each winter. The city used to get a good share of white winters in the past decades.
The month of September has never been so hot. Similarly, the weather remains cold until May, which used to be a hot month. These are definitely abnormalities. The temperature of October is now 31 degrees Celsius in Quetta. This has never happened before. Climate
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