FX TECHNICAL REPORT CURRENCY OUTLOOK US DOLLAR LONG-TERM TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
decline against nine other majors of around 43%, the US Dollar has so far retraced a tad over 50% of the 9 year decline, finding resistance very close to the 2009 recovery peak. A setback is now under way with MACD turning down from overbought. However, the (green) 60 month (5 year) and (blue) 120 month (10 year) moving averages are close to giving a (bullish) golden cross, suggesting losses since the start of the year are corrective.
Potentially this latest
The US Dollar peaked way back in 2001 / 2002 and underwent a major decline to reach extreme lows in 2008 & 2011, interrupted by a year-long recovery
which turned down from its 120 month (10 year) moving average in early 2009. Since reaching the mid 2011 extreme low, which represented an average
SWEDISH KRONE LONG-TERM TECHNICAL OUTLOOK channel. Te most recent test of the
The Swedish Kronor has been contained within a long-term bearish channel which originates back to the 1993 low
82 FX TRADER MAGAZINE April - June 2016
and subsequent lower top in 1998. Tere are several points of contact on both the bottom and the top of the
base of the channel came between March & May 2015, from where a bounce has occurred. Tis has been accompanied by an oversold buy signal from MACD, but with the recent indicator low being deeper than the previous indicator high, the longer-term bias remains bearish. Scope exists for a further multi-month recovery phase, but we see the risk of a lower top being leſt by support-turned- resistance from 2001 / 2011, which on average against nine other major currencies is 5-7% above the current value of the SEK. Tereaſter, a resumption of the long-term depreciation of the Swedish currency may commence.
retreat could extend to retest support- turned-resistance from 2004 / 2010 (8-12% below current levels), but a key higher low may then form, setting up the start of a renewed recovery phase.
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